Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-10

• POLUSDT closed lower at 0.2295 after a 24-hour range of 0.2393–0.2259; volume surged near end.
• Price dropped sharply from 0.2393 to 0.2295 in final hours, suggesting bearish reversal.
• RSI hit oversold levels, but momentum failed to confirm a rebound.
• Volume spiked during final 3 hours, aligning with the sharp sell-off.
• Key support tested at 0.2284, with potential for further downside risk if broken.

POLUSDT opened at 0.2363 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 0.2393 before closing at 0.2295 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. The 24-hour low was 0.2259. Total volume traded was 28,815,579.8 and total turnover (notional value) amounted to $7,164,483.3.

Structure & Formations

POLUSDT experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the final hours of the 24-hour period, forming a long lower shadow and a wide bearish gap between 0.2366 and 0.2303. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the session as prices opened near 0.2366 and closed near 0.2295. The formation suggests exhaustion of bullish momentum and a strong bearish shift in sentiment. The key support level at 0.2284 was tested, but no bullish reversal was observed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bearishly aligned, with price dropping below both in the final hours. The 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period MA were both bearish, with the 200-period MA acting as a medium-term floor around 0.2266. If price breaks below this level, it could accelerate the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative as bearish momentum increased, with the histogram showing a rapid expansion in the negative territory during the last 3 hours. The RSI dropped sharply below 30 into oversold territory, but no strong rebound was observed, indicating potential exhaustion of short-covering or a continuation of the sell-off. Momentum appears to be in the hands of sellers, and any recovery may be short-lived without a significant volume surge.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the final hours of the 24-hour period as price broke out of the lower Bollinger band. The width of the bands increased during the last 4 hours, suggesting heightened volatility and uncertainty. The move below the lower band indicates bearish bias, and the price remains near the lower bound, with potential for further declines unless buyers enter the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final 3 hours of the 24-hour period, with over 20 million contracts traded in the last hour alone. This aligns with the sharp price drop from 0.2366 to 0.2303, suggesting large sell orders. Notional turnover reached a high of $7 million in the last 90 minutes. The volume and price action are aligned, reinforcing the bearish move. Divergences were not observed, but the magnitude of the drop raises questions about the sustainability of the move without follow-through buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.2393–0.2295 swing, key levels include 38.2% at 0.2336, 50% at 0.2344, and 61.8% at 0.2352. Price briefly bounced near 0.2366 but failed to hold the 61.8% level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the previous upmove lies around 0.2284, which was tested but not held. These levels could be retested in the next 24 hours, particularly as volatility remains high.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on entering short positions on bearish engulfing patterns followed by confirmation of a MACD cross below zero and a RSI drop below 30, especially when aligned with high volume. The recent 15-minute candle on 2025-10-10 at 15:30 ET showed all these signals. A 1.5% stop-loss above the high of the pattern and a target of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (0.2352) could be tested as a short-term bearish strategy. This approach could be refined with additional filters such as the slope of moving averages and volume divergence.