Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-16)

• POLUSDT traded in a 24-hour range of $0.254–$0.2593, closing at $0.2555 with bearish consolidation.
• Momentum indicators show weakening bullish pressure, with RSI below 50 and MACD bearish.
• Volume activity remains mixed, with no significant divergence between price and turnover.
• Price near 38.2% Fibonacci support, with potential for short-term bounce or breakdown.
• Volatility remains compressed within Bollinger Bands, suggesting a sideways to slightly bearish setup.

At 12:00 ET on September 15, 2025, POLUSDT opened at $0.259, peaking at $0.2597 and hitting a low of $0.254 before closing at $0.2555 by 12:00 ET on September 16. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 104,483,336.20, with total turnover (notional value) at $26,134,716.

Structure & Formations

POLUSDT has formed a bearish consolidation pattern near the 0.256–0.257 level, with several bearish reversal formations such as a hanging man and a dark cloud cover pattern appearing near the upper end of the range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around the 0.2564–0.2553 range, reinforcing the likelihood of a breakdown. Key support levels include $0.256 (38.2% Fib) and $0.255 (61.8% Fib), with a critical level at $0.254–$0.2545 that has held on multiple retests.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA are both bearish, with the 20-EMA crossing below the 50-EMA in the morning hours, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA remains above the 100- and 200-EMA, suggesting medium-term support but not strong enough to override the recent bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the overnight session, forming a bearish crossover. RSI has been declining from around 55 to 48, suggesting weakening bullish pressure. While not yet in oversold territory, the RSI and MACD divergence indicates a lack of conviction in any short-term rallies.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remains within a narrow Bollinger Band range, indicating low volatility. The 20-period BB contraction has been in place since early morning, often preceding a breakout. Price is currently near the lower band at $0.255–$0.2555, which may trigger a short-term bounce or continuation of the bearish trend depending on volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has remained moderate throughout the session, with no major spikes signaling either accumulation or distribution. The highest volume was recorded in the 17:15–19:45 ET window, during which price moved from $0.256 to $0.2552. Turnover aligned with volume, with no significant divergences.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.254–0.2593 swing, the 38.2% level at $0.256 and the 61.8% at $0.2555 have acted as key pivot points. A breakdown below $0.255 could target $0.254–$0.2535 on a continuation of the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on a trend-following model triggered by a 20-EMA/50-EMA crossover and confirmed by RSI < 50 and MACD bearish crossover. Given the recent price action and bearish divergence in momentum indicators, such a strategy might look to enter short positions upon a breakdown of the $0.255 support, with a stop above $0.2565 and target at $0.254–$0.2535. This strategy would align with the bearish structure observed in the 15-minute and daily charts.