Market Overview: POL/Tether (POLUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• POLUSDT opened at $0.2358 and reached a high of $0.2432 within 24 hours, forming a bullish range.
• Price consolidation and bearish divergence in volume and momentum suggest caution ahead.
• Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours, with 24-hour volume reaching 35.4M and turnover at $8.4M.
• RSI overbought and bearish reversal patterns may signal potential pullback risks.
• Bollinger Band expansion confirms heightened uncertainty and a possible trend reversal.

24-Hour Snapshot

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at $0.2358 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2380 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of $0.2432 and a low of $0.2358. The 24-hour volume amounted to 35.4M units with a notional turnover of $8.4M, highlighting increased market participation and volatility.

Structure and Formations

Price action revealed a key resistance zone between $0.2402–$0.2416 and support at $0.2373–$0.2385. A bullish flag pattern was visible between 19:00 and 20:30 ET, followed by a bearish dark cloud cover around 00:00–01:00 ET, which capped upward momentum. A doji formed at 02:30 ET, signaling indecision near $0.2380, a potential short-term support level.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in a bearish crossover late in the session, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed the 200-period MA, suggesting a potential shift in medium-term sentiment. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the last 6 hours of the session, confirming rising volatility and a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Momentum and Fibonacci Levels

MACD showed a bearish crossover with a negative histogram expansion, while RSI reached overbought levels at $0.2432 before retreating, indicating potential bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% ($0.2394) and 61.8% ($0.2405) acted as dynamic support and resistance. Price failed to break above the 78.6% level ($0.2415), suggesting further downward testing of the 50% retracement ($0.2388).

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the 23:45–00:15 ET period, coinciding with the price pullback from $0.2405 to $0.2385. However, the notional turnover dropped slightly during this period, signaling a divergence between volume and price, which may indicate a weakening bearish trend. The highest turnover was recorded around 15:30–16:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout attempt from $0.2419 to $0.2432.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

POLUSDT may test the $0.2373–$0.2385 support zone in the next 24 hours, with a potential reversal back to $0.2415 if bulls regain control. However, a breakdown below $0.2373 could trigger further bearish momentum toward $0.2358, with increased risk of extended selling pressure amid divergent volume and momentum indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a time-based breakout approach using the 50-period MA as a dynamic support/resistance threshold. A long entry is triggered when price closes above the 50-period MA with a confirmation candle that gaps higher, while a stop-loss is placed 1.5% below the entry. A trailing stop is used to lock in gains once the RSI moves into overbought territory. The strategy aligns with the observed 19:00–20:30 ET bullish flag pattern, suggesting a potential long-biased trade if the price retests $0.2388 with increasing volume.