Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• POLUSDT fell by 6.6% on heavy volume over the past 24 hours
• Key support at 0.2202 and 0.2187 tested amid bearish divergence
• Volatility expanded after 0.2252, with price closing near lower Bollinger Band
• RSI shows oversold conditions at 27.3, indicating potential near-term rebound
• On-balance volume declined as price dropped, suggesting bearish conviction

Opening Summary

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.2282 (12:00 ET -1) and closed at 0.2198 (12:00 ET), with a high of 0.2284 and a low of 0.2151 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was 62,481,953.5, with a notional turnover of $13,776,825. The price action showed a broad bearish trend, with a notable drop in the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a clear bearish bias, with a long lower shadow forming at 0.2156 following a sharp decline in the early morning hours. This low tested the key support level at 0.2187 and bounced slightly. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 03:00–04:30 ET window, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji near 0.2202 at 11:45 ET signals indecision, suggesting a potential reversal may be on the horizon if buyers re-enter.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remains well below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 20-period MA is at 0.2218, and the 50-period MA is at 0.2226, both acting as dynamic resistance levels. On the daily chart, POLUSDT has crossed below the 50-period and 100-period MAs, with the 200-period MA at 0.2256 offering further bearish confirmation.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD is negative and trending lower, with the MACD line at -0.0004 and the signal line at -0.0003, indicating continued bearish momentum. RSI has fallen into oversold territory at 27.3, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, RSI remains below 30, so a reversal is not yet confirmed. If price continues to fall, RSI could drop further into extreme levels, signaling an overbought bounce in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has been highly volatile, with the bands expanding significantly after 0.2252. POLUSDT closed near the lower band at 0.2198, which is a bearish sign. The standard deviation of the bands is at a 7-day high, indicating increased uncertainty and a potential for a mean reversion or a breakdown below key support. A close below 0.2187 would align with the lower Bollinger Band and could confirm a deeper bearish leg lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline in the overnight hours, with a total of 2,792,429.4 traded at 12:30–12:45 ET when price fell to 0.2156. This large volume supports the bearish move. However, turnover decreased as price dropped below 0.2202, indicating reduced conviction among sellers. Divergence between price and volume could suggest a short-term bottom is forming, though this would need confirmation through a rebound above 0.2214.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price has retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.2202 following the high of 0.2284. A break below this level would target the 78.6% extension near 0.2187. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.2234 and could act as a dynamic resistance should the market rally. These levels are critical to watch for near-term directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering a short position on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.2202) with a stop just above the 78.6% level (0.2214) and a target at 0.2187. This setup would have been activated during the overnight selloff and would have aligned with bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI. Given the current price near 0.2198, a continuation of the bearish trend would validate the strategy. A reversal above 0.2202 would invalidate the setup and suggest a potential bounce.