Market Overview for POL/Tether (POLUSDT) on 2025-09-22

• POLUSDT opened at $0.2483 and closed at $0.2282, down 7.66% over 24 hours amid heightened bearish momentum.
• Price fell to a session low of $0.2151, reflecting aggressive selling and a breakdown of key support levels.
• Volatility spiked late in the session, with a 1.2% price swing in the final 15-minute candle.
• Turnover surged to $15.69 million in the 15-minute candle ending 06:15 ET, suggesting a large institutional sell-off.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 25, hinting at potential near-term buying interest or a continuation of the downtrend.

The POLUSDT pair opened at $0.2483 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2282 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The 24-hour session saw a low of $0.2151 and a high of $0.2488. Total volume was 51,623,006.3 and notional turnover reached approximately $12.37 million, with a sharp increase during the early morning ET session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a strong bearish bias, with a decisive breakdown from the $0.2488 resistance level after several failed attempts to reclaim it. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.2488–$0.2468, followed by a long-bodied candle confirming the breakdown. A key support level appears to be at $0.2270–$0.2275, which has shown partial rejection, though with no strong reversal yet. A doji formed at $0.2275, suggesting indecision. The price has now entered a range-bound phase around $0.2270–$0.2290, which could serve as a temporary base ahead of further directional movement.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key price levels during the breakdown phase, reinforcing the bearish momentum. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be acting as resistance around $0.2320, while the 200-period MA is significantly higher, around $0.2500, indicating a strong overbought condition on the higher timeframe. The price is currently below both the 50 and 200-day MAs, suggesting medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD is in bearish territory with a negative histogram and bearish crossover, reinforcing the recent sell-off. RSI has dropped into oversold territory, hitting levels as low as 23, which could indicate a potential short-term bounce or continuation of the downtrend. A close above $0.2290 might see RSI rebound, but without a bullish divergence or strong follow-through volume, a rebound may lack conviction. MACD could signal a divergence if price stabilizes while the MACD remains weak, indicating bearish exhaustion or a potential pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have shown significant contraction in the mid-session hours, with the 20-period bands tightening around $0.2370–$0.2380. This volatility contraction suggests a potential breakout or breakdown scenario. Price has since expanded beyond the lower band, reaching as low as $0.2151, indicating a strong bearish move. The current price sits near the lower band of the 20-period BB, reinforcing oversold conditions and potentially signaling a temporary bounce in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the breakdown phase, particularly in the 15-minute candle ending at 06:15 ET, with a notional turnover of $15.69 million. This aligns with the most significant price drop in the session, indicating a large institutional sell-off. Volume has since declined, with the last 15-minute candle showing a volume of 481,124.7 and a turnover of $109,015. The divergence between price and volume in the last hour suggests weakening conviction in the current move, hinting at possible consolidation or a reversal setup.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent high of $0.2488 to the low of $0.2151 show the 38.2% level at $0.2337 and the 61.8% level at $0.2243. The current price is near the 61.8% retracement level, which could act as a key support area. A break below this level would confirm a deeper correction toward $0.2151 or even $0.2080 (78.6% retracement). On the 15-minute chart, recent swings show a 61.8% retracement at $0.2270, which has held temporarily but with no strong reversal confirmation yet.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on using a combination of RSI (14) and Bollinger Band breakout signals on the 15-minute chart. The hypothesis is that when RSI falls below 30 (oversold) and price closes below the lower Bollinger Band, a potential short-term bounce may occur. This setup was observed around $0.2270 with a doji candle, suggesting a potential entry point for a short-term long trade. However, the bearish momentum has not fully reversed, and a strong close above $0.2290 may be required for confirmation. Given the current price near $0.2282, the strategy could be applied with a stop-loss below $0.2270 and a target at $0.2290–$0.2300, with a time frame of up to 24 hours to see confirmation.