Market Overview: POL/Tether (POLUSDT) – 2025-09-17

• POL/Tether (POLUSDT) edged higher over 24 hours, closing near a key resistance level with mixed momentum.

• Volatility expanded in the afternoon, with price testing 0.2593 before consolidating.

• Volume surged during the 19:30–21:00 ET window, but turnover failed to confirm bullish momentum.

• RSI signaled moderate overbought conditions, while MACD showed diverging bullish and bearish crossovers.

• Bollinger Bands widened midday, suggesting a potential breakout attempt that was not confirmed.

POL/Tether (POLUSDT) opened at 0.2555 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.2597 and a low of 0.2552, closing at 0.2562 as of 2025-09-17 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 39,933,748.7 and turnover stood at 10,266,190.7 over 24 hours, reflecting moderate on-chain activity.

Structure & Formations

Price action on POLUSDT formed a bullish flag pattern in the 15-minute timeframe, with key resistance at 0.2593 and support at 0.2563. A long-legged doji appeared at 03:45 ET, signaling indecision. A bullish engulfing pattern developed around 06:00–06:15 ET, suggesting short-term buying pressure. The 0.2570–0.2593 range emerged as a critical consolidation zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA during the early morning, hinting at short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, price remains above the 200DMA, though the 50DMA and 100DMA show signs of diverging from the 200DMA. This suggests the asset may remain in a long-term uptrend, but short-term traders may see a pullback.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero in the morning, indicating a bullish shift. However, the histogram began to flatten in the late morning, suggesting waning momentum. RSI hit 68–70 in the evening, signaling overbought conditions, and a bearish divergence appeared at 03:45 ET when price made a lower high while RSI did not confirm with a higher high.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during 17:00–20:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly. Price traded near the upper band from 19:00–20:30 ET, hinting at a potential breakout that failed to confirm. After a consolidation phase, price closed near the middle band, indicating a return to equilibrium. A further widening could signal renewed directional movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during 19:30–21:00 ET, with a 15-minute bar showing 564,706.5 units. However, turnover during this period failed to reach a new high, suggesting potential price-volume divergence. Another volume spike at 04:30–04:45 ET confirmed a bearish reversal, as price fell from 0.2570 to 0.2553. These divergences may foreshadow a correction or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.2552–0.2597 swing on 15-minute data shows 61.8% retracement at 0.2574, a level that was tested twice during the session. Daily swings suggest a 38.2% retracement at 0.2576, which appears to be acting as a pivot level for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long on a bullish engulfing pattern forming above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below a recent swing low and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach was tested during the 06:00–06:15 ET window when price formed a valid pattern and closed near a key retracement level. If confirmed by a close above the 0.2570 support-turned-resistance, this strategy could be repeated in similar setups. Given the recent divergence in RSI and MACD, traders may want to add a bearish counter-trend trigger to manage risk, especially during volatile hours.