Market Overview for POL/Tether (2025-11-01)

• POL/Tether rose from 0.1879 to 0.1904 in 24 hours amid strong late-day buying pressure.
• Momentum picked up after 17:00 ET with RSI pushing into overbought territory.
• Volatility expanded as price broke above the upper Bollinger Band.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, confirming the bullish breakout.
• A key support at 0.1817 and resistance at 0.1904 defined the 24-hour range.

The POL/Tether (POLUSDT) pair opened at 0.1879 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 0.1904 at 12:00 ET the same day. The 24-hour high was 0.1907, and the low was 0.1817. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 44,079,700.57, with a notional turnover of $8,348,675.79, based on average price of ~$0.1892.

On the 15-minute chart, the pair showed a clear downtrend in the first half of the day, with several bearish consolidations and a strong bearish move from 0.1879 to 0.1817 by 18:30 ET. However, a sharp reversal took place after 19:00 ET, with a series of bullish candles forming a strong upward trend. A key support level at 0.1817 and a resistance at 0.1904 defined the 24-hour action. Notable patterns included a bullish engulfing near 18:30 ET and a morning star pattern in the early hours of 2025-11-01.

The 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA in the late morning, signaling a potential trend shift. On the 200-period daily chart, the 50-day EMA is below the 100-day and 200-day EMA, indicating a bearish bias in the medium to long term. The MACD line turned positive in the early morning and continued to rise, reinforcing the bullish momentum. RSI spiked to 72 by 11:00 ET, suggesting overbought conditions, but the price continued higher into the close, suggesting strong conviction in the rally.

Bollinger Bands displayed a clear expansion after the 19:00 ET reversal, with price moving above the upper band by 10:00 ET the next day. The narrow consolidation in the morning gave way to a breakout in the evening, indicating a shift in volatility. Fibonacci retracements aligned with key levels from the 18:30 ET low to the 10:00 ET high, with the 61.8% level at 0.1904 acting as a strong resistance that was briefly tested.

Bullish volume action was evident in the final six hours, with multiple 15-minute candles exceeding 300,000 in volume. Notional turnover surged in the 19:00–23:45 ET window, peaking at $68,000 in a single candle (23:30–23:45 ET). There was strong alignment between price and volume, confirming the bullish momentum. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price during the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

To further validate the potential of the recent bullish reversal, a backtesting strategy is proposed using the Bullish-Engulfing pattern on the POLUSDT pair. The strategy will use the correct symbol format for the data provider (e.g., POLUSDT.BINANCE or POL/USDT), depending on the specific exchange data source. Once confirmed, the backtest will:

1. Detect all Bullish-Engulfing patterns between 2022-01-01 and the present.
2. Open a long position on each signal and hold for 5 calendar days.
3. Track performance metrics including cumulative return, maximum drawdown, win/loss ratio, and risk-adjusted returns.
4. Visualize results with an interactive chart showing entry points, trade outcomes, and cumulative equity.

This approach will help assess the reliability of the pattern in trending and consolidating environments, offering actionable insights for strategy refinement and risk management.