Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY): October 6–7, 2025

• PLUMETRY declined by ~13.5% over the last 24 hours, closing near a recent low of 4.411.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, while volume increased significantly after midday.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early, followed by a sharp decline in volatility.
• Bollinger Bands have compressed, suggesting potential for a breakout or reversal.
• Volume was highest during the afternoon and evening ET, but price failed to follow through.

Opening Summary and Price Action

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 5.651 on October 6 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 5.668 before closing at 4.411 on October 7 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a low of 4.402 and ended near that level. Total traded volume over the period was ~27.5 million units, with a notional turnover of approximately 123.4 million TRY.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish bias from the outset, highlighted by a strong bearish engulfing pattern forming between 16:00–16:15 ET. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a sharp drop into oversold territory. A potential support area appears to be forming between 4.402–4.421, with a prior resistance level at 5.03–5.08. A bearish divergence is visible in the RSI, while a morning doji near 4.884 suggests indecision.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages are both in a steep downward trend, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 and 100-period moving averages are also bearish, while the 200-day MA remains unchanged. The MACD has turned negative and is currently below the signal line, indicating that short-term bearish momentum remains intact. RSI has entered oversold territory (28.7) and may set up for a potential bounce or bear trap.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility has declined sharply from a high of 5.668 to a low of 4.402, with the price currently near the lower Bollinger Band. The contraction in band width suggests a potential reversal or breakout could be on the horizon. Price has been bouncing between the lower band and midline, signaling a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover Divergences

Volume spiked in the afternoon and early evening ET, reaching a peak of ~1.59 million units between 19:15–19:30 ET, but price failed to follow through on that strength, forming a bearish divergence. The most recent 15-minute period saw a volume dip despite a price pullback, raising questions about the strength of the current support. Notional turnover reached a high of ~7.8 million TRY in the late afternoon, but momentum has since stalled.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key 15-minute swing from 5.668 to 4.402 show 38.2% at 4.94, 50% at 4.78, and 61.8% at 4.40. Price has been consolidating near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential bounce or bearish continuation is possible. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels applied to the most recent leg down suggest 4.402 as a key psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on PLUMETRY when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing or dark cloud cover) and RSI in overbought territory. The stop-loss is placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, with a take-profit at the 61.8% level or a break of the 20-period MA. Over the past 24 hours, this strategy would have generated an early short signal around 16:00 ET, which held through the consolidation and subsequent drop. However, the lack of a strong follow-through in the last hour suggests caution for near-term execution, as volume and momentum signals are mixed.