Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) - October 3, 2025

• PLUMETRY closed lower at 4.002, down 3.06% from its opening price of 4.129.
• Price tested key support at 4.050, forming bearish patterns like hanging man and evening star.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, while Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased volatility.
• Volume spiked in the final hours of the session, with a sharp drop in price and no corresponding volume confirmation.
• The 15-minute chart shows a bearish trend with a 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA into a death cross.

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.129 on October 2, 2025, hit a high of 4.189, and closed at 4.002 by 12:00 ET on October 3. The 24-hour notional volume was 1,955,683.0 (TRY), while the total turnover was approximately 7,780,171.67 TRY. Price action remained bearish throughout, with key support and resistance levels clearly defined.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a bearish bias, with resistance forming around 4.140 and support holding at 4.050. Price tested the 4.140 resistance zone early in the session but failed to break through, forming a hanging man pattern. Later, it retested 4.060 and created a bullish hammer, but this failed to sustain upward momentum. Evening star and bearish engulfing patterns emerged in the last few hours, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the final hour, forming a death cross and signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend. The 50/100/200 daily moving averages (calculated from the 24-hour close) suggest a short-term bearish outlook, with the price trading below all three, indicating bearish dominance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory and remained bearish throughout the session, with the signal line pulling away, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, reaching a low of 28 in the final hours, which could signal short-term buying interest but not a reversal. Combined with the MACD divergence, the indicators suggest a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price oscillating near the lower band, particularly in the final four hours of the session. The contraction seen earlier in the day was followed by a sharp expansion, suggesting a breakout move could be on the horizon. However, the failure to close above the 4.140 level points to a likely continuation of the bearish trend rather than a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the last four hours, with over 287,000 units traded in the final hour alone. However, the price dropped despite the increased volume, suggesting possible capitulation by longs rather than a bullish breakout. The lack of follow-through buying suggests the move lower may not be confirmed yet. Notional turnover rose in line with volume, indicating liquidity was available for the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from 4.189 to 4.002, the 38.2% retracement level is at 4.137 and the 61.8% level at 4.101. Price found resistance near 4.140, aligning with the 38.2% retracement, indicating short-term bearish pressure. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% level aligns with the 4.050 support, which the pair tested before continuing lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry near the 4.140 resistance with a stop-loss above the 4.160 level and a target at 4.050. The RSI reaching oversold territory and the formation of bearish candlestick patterns offer high-probability signals for continuation. A trailing stop could be activated as price moves lower through key Fibonacci levels, with risk management based on volatility and volume spikes. This approach would leverage the current structure and momentum, capitalizing on the likely continuation of the downtrend.