Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY)

Summary
• Price opened at 1.996 and closed at 2.006 after a volatile 24-hour range of 1.921–2.078.
• Momentum surged with RSI hitting overbought and key 200-period daily MA crossed below.
• Volume spiked near session highs, confirming strength in final hours.

Price Action and Structure

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 1.996 on 2025-11-13 and closed at 2.006 at 12:00 ET, marking a 0.010-point gain. The 24-hour period saw a dramatic range of 1.921 to 2.078, with the most significant price action occurring in the early morning hours of 12:00 ET to 07:00 ET. A key resistance level appears to form around 2.078, which was briefly tested but failed to break. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 02:30–03:00 ET, confirming a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish momentum.

The pair tested a prior support level at 1.954, which held, suggesting continued resilience. A notable bearish doji formed at 19:30–19:45 ET, indicating indecision among traders after a sharp decline.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (1.978) and 50-period MA (1.991) were crossed multiple times during the session, with the price generally holding above the 50SMA after 04:00 ET. Daily moving averages show the 50-day MA at 1.989, with the 200-day MA at 1.975. These suggest a mildly bullish bias in the medium term.

RSI reached overbought territory (75–78) during the morning surge, indicating short-term exhaustion. The MACD crossed above the signal line near 01:30 ET, suggesting a continuation of bullish momentum. However, RSI’s divergence in the last two hours suggests potential for a pullback in the near term.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly after 03:00 ET, with the price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band (2.025) and touching 2.078 before retracing. This suggests heightened trading interest and a potential shift in sentiment. The bands were in a narrow contraction before the breakout, signaling a possible move. Price currently sits near the upper band, indicating stretched levels with potential for a correction.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked during the final hours of the 24-hour period, particularly between 06:00–08:00 ET, with the largest turnover occurring at 07:00–07:15 ET. This was accompanied by a sharp price increase to 2.072. Notably, there was a divergence between volume and price in the final candle before close, where price declined slightly while volume remained elevated—indicating a potential reversal warning.

Total volume was approximately 4.5 million units, and turnover came in at 9.3 million Turkish Lira, indicating a moderate increase in activity compared to recent sessions.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing low of 1.921 and high of 2.078, the 61.8% retracement level is at 1.999, which the pair briefly touched before reversing. The 38.2% retracement level at 2.032 served as a temporary resistance. The current price is close to the 50% retracement level, suggesting a potential area of consolidation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

To create a robust backtest strategy aligned with the technical signals observed today, we propose using a breakout approach based on the 20-day high as the resistance level. The entry would occur at the next day’s open after the breakout, with a 1-day holding period. This approach mirrors the sharp move seen between 06:45–07:00 ET, where price broke out of a defined range with strong volume confirmation.

For execution, the test will be run solely on PLUMETRY, using a 20-day look-back window for resistance identification. Entry and exit will follow the convention of entering at the next day’s open and exiting at the next day’s close. Additional risk controls such as stop-loss or take-profit levels are not included unless specified, allowing the strategy to reflect pure breakout momentum.