Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY)

Summary
• PLUMETRY declined 8.2% over 24 hours, closing at 2.175.
• Volatility surged in early hours, with a 10.7% drop from the 17:00 high of 2.244.
• Strong bearish momentum in RSI and MACD suggests oversold conditions are forming.

Opening and Price Range

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 2.244 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and hit a high of 2.244 before falling to a 24-hour low of 2.062. It closed at 2.175 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The pair saw a total traded volume of 4.88 million units and a notional turnover of 10.1 million TRL over the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a breakdown below key support levels, notably the 2.175 level, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern in the early morning hours. A doji formed near the 2.163 level, indicating indecision before the price drifted lower again.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart show a sharp bearish crossover, reinforcing downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling potential bearish bias in the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned deeply bearish, with the line crossing below the signal line and remaining negative. RSI stands at 34, indicating the market may be approaching oversold territory, though bearish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent much of the last 24 hours near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting high volatility and a continuation of the downward trend. A contraction in band width occurred late in the previous day, followed by a sharp expansion and bearish breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 18:30–18:45 and 22:15–22:30 ET timeframes, coinciding with major price drops. Notional turnover increased in tandem, confirming bearish conviction. A divergence appears in the latest hour as volume declined while price remained below 2.175, signaling short-term consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent bullish leg is now acting as resistance at 2.191. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the larger bearish move is near 2.120, making it a potential near-term target if the downtrend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the bearish bias observed in PLUMETRY, a backtesting strategy using the MACD indicator could be applied. By identifying all instances of a MACD death cross (MACD line crossing below the signal line) between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-05, we could evaluate the historical performance of the pair following such signals. If this pattern has historically led to significant price declines, it may strengthen the case for a cautious short-term outlook.