Market Overview: Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY)

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• PLUMETRY declined 6.9% over the past 24 hours, closing at 4.104 after testing resistance near 4.20–4.25.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions above 4.25 but failed to hold, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded after 22:30 ET, with volume surging on downward breaks.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 4.33–4.35, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price drifted to lower band, hinting at oversold territory.

15-Minute Chart Structure and Key Levels

The 24-hour candlestick pattern for PLUMETRY revealed a consistent bearish bias, with price breaking below critical support levels at 4.25, 4.20, and 4.15. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 4.33–4.35 (22:30 ET), suggesting a key reversal. Key resistance remains at 4.20–4.25, while immediate support is currently at 4.105–4.15. A doji formed near 4.125 (15:15 ET), signaling indecision and potential for a short-term bounce.

Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA moved lower throughout the 24-hour window, staying well above the 50-period MA, confirming a bearish trend. Daily chart MAs (50, 100, and 200) were not provided, but the intra-day action suggests the asset is trending below its short-term moving averages, reinforcing bearish momentum.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD line turned negative early in the session, confirming bearish momentum, with the histogram narrowing as selling pressure waned slightly toward the end. RSI dipped below 30 by 14:30 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though no immediate reversal was triggered. Price failed to close above 4.20–4.25 despite RSI bouncing from overbought levels, suggesting distribution at those levels.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly after 22:30 ET as price moved toward the lower Bollinger band. The band width increased from ~0.015 to ~0.03, indicating a potential consolidation or reversal phase. Price currently rests near the lower band at 4.105, with the 20-period MA acting as a ceiling. A bounce could lead to a retest of the 4.15–4.20 range.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume surged during key price breaks, particularly after 22:30 ET and again around 15:00 ET, with the highest volume candle reaching 667,299 units. Turnover remained aligned with price, with no significant divergence noted. The volume spike at 4.25–4.30 ET confirmed bearish conviction. A final bearish volume spike occurred as price fell toward 4.105, suggesting exhaustion of short-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 4.532–4.635 swing identified key levels at 4.579 (38.2%) and 4.514 (61.8%). Price broke below 61.8% and continued lower, with the 4.105 level now acting as a potential 78.6% retracement from the initial high. A retest of 4.15–4.20 may offer 61.8% and 38.2% levels for further Fibonacci-based entry or exit clues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy could leverage the bearish engulfing and doji patterns observed during the 22:30–00:00 ET period, combined with RSI entering oversold territory. A possible entry would be triggered on a confirmed break below 4.105 with a stop above 4.15–4.16. Given the volume confirmation and alignment with Fibonacci levels, this approach could test the effectiveness of using candlestick patterns with RSI and volume for short-term bearish setups. The risk remains that a strong bounce from oversold levels could invalidate the short bias.