Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY)

• Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) surged 17.6% from 4.728 to 5.389 on heavy volume and positive momentum.
• Strong bearish divergence emerged after 09:00 ET as volume spiked but price failed to confirm bullish continuation.
• Bollinger Band expansion and RSI overbought levels (85–90) suggest potential near-term profit-taking.
• A key support at 5.27–5.30 is critical; a break could trigger 6–8% downside risk.
• Daily and 15-minute structures show a bullish wedge forming but with fading conviction.

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.728 on 2025-09-12 12:00 ET and closed at 5.389 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET, with a high of 5.69 and low of 5.128 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 44,453,618 and notional turnover was approximately 232,857,282 TRY.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a strong bullish impulse during the first 12 hours of the session, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, forming a tight ascending wedge. The most notable move occurred between 20:00 ET and 21:30 ET, where price surged from 5.111 to 5.472. However, a bearish divergence emerged after 09:00 ET as volume increased sharply while the price failed to break above the 5.45–5.48 resistance cluster. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed around 07:00 ET with an open of 5.22 and close of 5.225, suggesting a shift in sentiment. Key support levels are identified at 5.27–5.30 and 5.16–5.20, while resistance remains at 5.44–5.48 and 5.53–5.56.

Moving Averages and Volatility

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish on the 15-minute chart, with price consistently above both and a positive angle. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is rising and price remains above the 200-day MA, indicating a medium-term bullish bias. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 20:00–21:30 ET period, signaling increased volatility and consolidation after the 09:00 ET peak. Price appears to be stabilizing closer to the lower band in recent hours, hinting at a potential reversal or pullback.

Momentum and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought territory above 85 between 01:30–07:00 ET and again between 09:00–11:00 ET. This suggests a high likelihood of near-term profit-taking and consolidation. MACD turned bearish in the last three hours, with the histogram shrinking and the signal line crossing above the MACD line, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The 15-minute chart shows a bearish crossover in the last candle, aligning with the overbought RSI readings.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked significantly during the 20:00–21:30 ET surge, with over 3 million units traded in the 5.111–5.472 rally. However, turnover failed to confirm the bullish move after 09:00 ET, showing a divergence. This weak confirmation suggests the bullish move may have exhausted its buying pressure. Notably, volume increased by 150% during the 06:30–07:30 ET bearish correction, but price did not break below key support, indicating strong buying interest near the 5.27–5.30 level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 5.111–5.472 swing show that price tested the 61.8% level at 5.34 and 78.6% at 5.43 before reversing. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level aligns with the current consolidation area at 5.27–5.34, which appears to be acting as support. A break below this level could trigger a move toward the 61.8% retracement at 5.16, which is also a key psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on this 15-minute setup could involve entering a long position on a bullish breakout above a key resistance level (e.g., 5.44–5.48) with a stop loss placed below a recent swing low (e.g., 5.27) and a target at the next Fibonacci level (e.g., 5.53–5.56). Alternatively, a short position could be initiated on a bearish divergence confirmed by a breakdown of the 5.27–5.30 support with a stop above a recent high (e.g., 5.38–5.42). Both setups would benefit from high volatility and strong volume, as seen during the 20:00–21:30 ET and 06:30–07:30 ET periods.