Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY)

• Price declined 19.7% in 24 hours, closing at 4.351 after a sharp drop from 4.627 high.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Band width reaching 8.2%.
• RSI entered oversold territory (<30), suggesting potential for short-term rebound. • Volume spiked to 46423 at the end of the session but failed to confirm a reversal. • A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 09:30–10:00 ET level, failing to sustain momentum.

Price and Volume Summary

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.611 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 4.627 before closing at 4.351 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The price recorded a low of 4.14 during the session, marking a 19.7% decline. Total volume amounted to 1,393,045 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 5,878,228 Turkish Lira. The market remained bearish throughout the 24-hour period.

The price has been trading below key moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with the 20-period and 50-period lines intersecting in a bearish crossover. A 20-period MA currently sits at ~4.37, and the 50-period MA at ~4.39, suggesting continued bearish bias for the next few sessions.

Support and Resistance Levels and Patterns

Key support levels were identified at 4.35 and 4.30, with the latter showing potential as a short-term floor after multiple tests. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at the 09:30–10:00 ET timeframe, followed by a doji at 4.275, indicating indecision. On the upside, resistance is forming at 4.44 and 4.50. A breakdown below 4.30 could expose the 4.25–4.20 zone.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD turned negative and remains bearish, with a bearish crossover occurring in the late hours of the session. RSI fell below 30, signaling oversold conditions, although it may not be enough to trigger a significant bounce without a corresponding volume confirmation. Momentum remains weak, and the pair could continue to consolidate within the 4.30–4.40 range before showing further direction.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased significantly during the session, with the Bollinger Band width expanding to 8.2%. Price touched the lower band multiple times, especially between 01:00 and 03:00 ET, signaling high bearish pressure. The bands are now wider than average, suggesting increased uncertainty and potential for either a bounce or a continuation of the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci levels from the 04:15–06:15 ET swing show 38.2% at 4.41 and 61.8% at 4.35. The price is currently trading near the 61.8% level, which may offer short-term resistance if a rebound occurs. On a broader scale, the 24-hour swing from 4.627 to 4.14 has seen the 4.40–4.30 area become a key pivot point for near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a potential short-term bounce could be tested with a Fibonacci-based strategy. A buy setup may be considered at the 4.35 (61.8%) level if RSI rebounds above 35 and volume increases. A stop-loss could be placed below 4.30 to manage risk, with a target near 4.40. This strategy aligns with the recent formation of a bullish engulfing pattern and could offer an entry point for a reversal trade.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Consideration

The market appears to be entering a phase of consolidation, with bearish momentum easing slightly but not reversing. A break below the 4.30 support may test the 4.25–4.20 range, while a close above 4.40 could indicate a near-term rebound. Investors should monitor volume closely for any confirmation of bullish follow-through and remain cautious of further downside risk in the next 24 hours.