Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) – 24-Hour Summary

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• Price declined from 4.12 to 3.945, forming bearish divergences and key support near 3.95.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with RSI below 30, indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the early ET hours, with volume surging to 96,614.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the breakdown, confirming increased sell pressure.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 3.97 became a short-term pivot for possible consolidation.

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.097 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded between 4.12 and 3.945 before closing at 3.945 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of 1,947,443 and a notional turnover of 7,771,696 TRY over the 24-hour period. A distinct bearish bias emerged, driven by multiple 15-minute breakdown candles and a sharp volume spike during the 10:15–11:45 ET window.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both moved lower, reflecting a sustained bearish bias. Key support levels were identified at 3.95–3.97 and 3.89, with resistance near 4.02–4.05. A potential bullish reversal may occur if the price retests the 3.95–3.97 zone and closes above it with a confirmation candle. A breakdown below 3.92 could trigger further risk to 3.85–3.80.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the price approached 3.945, signaling increased volatility and risk of a short-term reversal. The lower band hovered near 3.94–3.96, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 4.04–3.945 swing. RSI dipped below 30 during the 10:45–11:45 ET window, reinforcing the oversold condition, though a potential rebound may still be driven by volume divergence.

The MACD crossed below the zero line with bearish momentum, with the histogram showing a decline in short-term bearish force. Volume surged during the 10:15–11:45 ET window, reaching 96,614, but failed to support a bounce above 3.97. A test of 3.95–3.97 in the next 24 hours could offer a key decision point for sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy assumes a mean-reversion approach using RSI and Bollinger Bands as triggers. When RSI falls below 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger band, a long position is entered with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a stop-loss below the nearest support. Over the last 24 hours, this would have generated a potential long signal at 3.95–3.96, aligning with the 61.8% retracement. This strategy relies on volatility contraction and a retest of key support levels to validate the bounce.