Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) – 2025-10-06

• PLUMETRY traded in a 24-hour range of $4.04–$5.736, closing at $5.128 after sharp late-session gains.
• Price broke above key resistance at $4.248, signaling a shift toward higher volatility and bullish momentum.
• Volume spiked to 15 million on the 15-minute chart, with $5.522 high coinciding with a massive $15.2M notional turnover.
• RSI reached overbought levels near 70 at session highs, but did not trigger a correction, indicating strong bullish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the final 2-hour window, reflecting aggressive buying pressure.

The 24-hour session for PLUMETRY began at $4.04 and reached a high of $5.736, closing at $5.128 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The pair traded in a range of $4.04 to $5.736, with total 15-minute volume reaching 5.357M and notional turnover exceeding $15.2M in the final candle, marking the highest in the dataset. A sharp breakout above $4.248 appears to have driven momentum, with late-session buying reinforcing the bullish bias.

Structure and formations indicate a strong support level forming around $4.04–$4.06, with a key resistance cluster between $4.199 and $4.248. An engulfing pattern emerged at $4.25–$4.278, followed by a long white candle with a high of $5.522, confirming strength. A doji at $4.248–$4.25 also signaled indecision before the breakout. A major bullish divergence emerged between price and RSI at $4.933–$5.369, with price rising despite RSI overbought readings.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a strong crossover of 20- and 50-period SMAs in the morning hours, reinforcing a bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period SMAs appear to have crossed near $4.16–$4.17, suggesting a possible resumption of a longer-term uptrend after consolidation.

MACD turned positive during the breakout phase, with a sharp histogram expansion confirming bullish momentum. RSI approached overbought levels near 70 and remained there for several hours, but did not trigger a meaningful pullback, suggesting strong buying pressure. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the final 2-hour window, reflecting high volatility and aggressive accumulation. Price closed near the upper band on the final candle, signaling strong conviction.

Volume and notional turnover spiked dramatically in the final 15 minutes of the session, with 15.27M volume and $15.2M turnover recorded at the $5.522 high. This divergence between price and earlier lower-volume candles suggests strong accumulation during the final phase. No major price-turnover discrepancies were observed before the breakout, indicating consistent buying pressure.

Fibonacci retracements drawn on the recent 15-minute swing from $4.04 to $5.736 identified key levels at $5.356 (61.8%) and $5.0 (38.2%). Price broke through the 61.8% level with minimal retracement, suggesting continuation potential. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA appears to align with a major Fib level at $4.169, which could act as a pivot for the next phase.

Looking ahead, PLUMETRY may test the $5.369–$5.522 range, with a potential pullback to $4.933 or $4.865 (Fib 61.8%) before continuing higher. Traders should remain cautious as overbought conditions persist, and a break below $4.933 could signal a temporary consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position at a 20- and 50-period SMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the most recent support level. The strategy assumes continued bullish momentum based on the observed engulfing and continuation patterns and aims to capture gains during the breakout. Given the high volatility and volume during the final 2-hour window, a trailing stop or dynamic take-profit above the $5.356 (61.8% Fib) may provide optimized risk-reward balance.