Market Overview for Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) – 2025-09-23

• PLUMETRY declined from 4.384 to 4.252 in the early session, with strong bearish momentum observed.
• Price rebounded to 4.267 after midday, showing mixed buyer resilience but failing to clear key resistance.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon session, with a notable volume spike of 136,646 units at 14:45 ET.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 30, hinting at potential short-term bounces.
• Turnover confirmed price declines until midday but diverged during the late-day rebound.

Plume/Turkish Lira (PLUMETRY) opened at 4.376 on 2025-09-22 at 16:00 ET and closed at 4.252 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The pair traded between 4.384 (high) and 4.154 (low) over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 1,309,377 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 5,407,000 Turkish Lira, reflecting strong participation during key price movements.

Structure & Formations

Price followed a distinct bearish trend in the early morning, with a strong bearish engulfing pattern forming around 19:15 ET as price closed at 4.204 from 4.235. This was followed by a recovery attempt forming a bullish hammer at 22:15 ET (4.251), suggesting a short-term bottom. However, a bearish rejection was confirmed at 03:30 ET, with price declining again from 4.198 to 4.171 before finding support at 4.154. A bullish divergence in the afternoon, particularly at 14:45 ET, showed a sharp volume-driven rebound to 4.244, but resistance at 4.267–4.271 remained intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below key swing levels during the morning selloff and remained bearish until the late afternoon. By 14:45 ET, price closed above both moving averages but failed to close above the 50SMA, indicating a fragile recovery. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are bearishly aligned, with price currently below both. A move above 4.281 would signal a potential shift in trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the morning with a bearish crossover and a negative histogram, confirming the early selloff. A late-day bullish crossover occurred at 14:45 ET, coinciding with the volume surge. RSI hit a low of 30 by 05:30 ET and rose to 45 by the end of the session, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, RSI remains below 50, indicating continued bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the Bollinger Bands throughout the session, with volatility widening in the late afternoon as the 15:00 ET candle closed at 4.244. The lower band acted as a support level during the 05:30–11:45 ET period, with price touching 4.154. The upper band at 4.267–4.281 was tested three times but not broken, suggesting strong resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 136,646 units at 14:45 ET, coinciding with the sharp rebound to 4.244. This volume spike was confirmed by the notional turnover, which spiked to 593,342 Turkish Lira. However, the volume and turnover diverged from price during the 05:30–11:45 ET period, with price falling but volume remaining moderate. This divergence suggests potential bearish continuation, though the afternoon rebound shows renewed interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 19:15 ET to 05:30 ET swing (4.204–4.154), key levels at 4.171 (38.2%) and 4.191 (61.8%) were tested and confirmed as support. On the 14:45 ET to 16:00 ET rebound (4.244–4.252), resistance is expected at 4.271 (38.2%) and 4.281 (61.8%). A break above 4.271 could signal further recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish MACD crossover above the 50SMA, with a stop loss placed below the 20SMA. The hypothesis is that a confirmed rebound with strong volume and a MACD crossover could drive price toward 4.281. This would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a key psychological resistance. The strategy would aim to capture momentum bounces amid a broader bearish trend, provided price does not break back below 4.244.