Market Overview for Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis (10/03/2025)

• Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range between 0.8567 and 0.9657, closing at 0.9071 after a sharp selloff.
• The pair experienced high volatility in the early ET hours, followed by consolidation and a bearish momentum shift.
• RSI levels suggest oversold conditions in the final hours, with volume diverging from price, hinting at potential reversal.
• A key support level at 0.9006 was tested and held, while resistance levels at 0.92–0.93 showed mixed strength.
• The total volume amounted to 148.7 million, with turnover of approximately 135.2 million USD.

Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) opened at 0.9437 on October 2, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and closed at 0.9071 on October 3, 2025, at the same time. The pair traded as high as 0.9657 and as low as 0.8567, with a total 24-hour volume of 148.67 million units and a notional turnover of approximately 135.2 million USD. The session featured sharp corrections and a bearish bias from 10:30 PM ET onward.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown from 0.95–0.96 resistance, with a long-bodied bearish candle at 22:30 ET closing at 0.8933, a key short-term pivot. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during this time, followed by a series of lower highs and consolidation around 0.90–0.915. A notable doji formed at 04:00 AM ET, suggesting indecision and possible reversal. Key support levels at 0.9006 and 0.8875 appear strong based on volume and price reactions, while the 0.92–0.93 zone shows a mix of strength and rejection.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, forming a death cross in the early session and reinforcing the downward trend. The MACD line remained below the signal line, with a bearish divergence forming after 04:00 AM ET. The histogram expanded in the negative territory, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI briefly dipped into oversold territory (below 30) in the final hours of the session, indicating a potential short-term bounce, but it failed to break the 40 level, suggesting limited upside conviction.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded during the sharp selloff in the late evening and early morning hours, with price trading outside the lower Bollinger Band for several candles. The band width expanded from 0.008 to over 0.018 during this time, reflecting increased uncertainty and fear in the market. In the latter half of the session, volatility contracted, and the price moved within the band, suggesting exhaustion in the bearish move. A retest of the 0.91–0.92 upper band could act as a trigger for a near-term bounce.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume spiked significantly during the 22:30–01:00 ET window, with the largest single candle at 22:30 ET showing over 18 million units traded. However, as the price approached the 0.90–0.915 consolidation zone, volume decreased despite price action stabilizing. This volume divergence suggests a potential reversal or at least a pause in the downward momentum. Turnover mirrored volume, with a peak at 22:30 ET, but it also showed a drop in the last 3 hours of the session despite price hovering near key support.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major 15-minute swing from 0.8567 to 0.9657, the 61.8% level is around 0.9175, which has acted as a strong support. The 50% level at 0.9111 has seen multiple touches without breaking. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retrace of the recent decline from 0.9657 to 0.8567 is at 0.912, closely aligning with the 15-minute consolidation zone. This suggests the market may see a retest or a bounce from this critical area in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering short positions on a break below the 15-minute 20-period moving average with a stop loss at the 50-period MA, while long entries are triggered on a retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a stop below the 0.9006 support. This approach would have captured the bearish move while protecting against a potential short-term rebound. Given the RSI divergence and volume contraction, a modified strategy incorporating a 3–4-hour time frame might provide a smoother signal and reduce false triggers. Integrating MACD histogram convergence to confirm bounces could further enhance accuracy.