Market Overview for Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT): 2025-10-31

• Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) fell to 0.284 before closing at 0.298 on 2025-10-31.
• Price formed multiple bearish structures before a late recovery attempt.
• Volume remained elevated throughout the session, with a sharp increase near the close.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions during the low and showed bullish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands tightened near 0.284, suggesting potential for a breakout or reversal.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-31, Plasma/Tether (XPLUSDT) opened at 0.2947, reaching a high of 0.3065 and a low of 0.2840 before closing at 0.2980. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to approximately 56,569,800 units, while notional turnover was estimated at 16,323,200 USD. The price action shows a strong bearish bias early in the session, followed by a gradual recovery, particularly after 01:00 ET.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below price during the early bearish phase but later converged upward, reflecting a shift in momentum. The 50-period SMA (Simple Moving Average) acted as a support level during the bounce, reinforcing a potential short-term reversal pattern. Notably, a bullish engulfing pattern formed around 02:00 ET, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward move. Resistance levels are forming near 0.3000 and 0.3030, while support remains at 0.2970 and the 50-period SMA.

MACD (12, 26, 9) confirmed a bearish momentum during the decline but turned positive after the recovery phase, indicating a possible reversal in trend. The RSI (14) dropped below 30 at 0.2840, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting a potential bounce. Bollinger Bands tightened near the key low of 0.2840, signaling a period of consolidation and potential volatility expansion in the next 24 hours. Price is currently trading above the middle band, suggesting a cautious but optimistic bias for the short term.

Fibonacci retracement levels identified key levels of interest based on the swing from 0.2840 to 0.3065. The 61.8% retracement level is at 0.2970, which aligns with the 50-period SMA and acted as a support zone during the recovery. A break above the 78.6% retracement at 0.3005 could signal stronger bullish momentum. On the 15-minute chart, a bearish divergence between price and volume during the initial decline was followed by a bullish divergence, hinting at a possible trend reversal.

The volume and turnover data suggest increasing conviction during the recovery phase. The highest volume spikes occurred near the key low (0.2840) and the subsequent bounce, indicating significant participation and a possible reversal setup. Notional turnover also increased in line with the price recovery, supporting the technical setup. A continuation above 0.3030 could bring the 20-period SMA into focus as a potential resistance-turned-support level.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential short-term strategy involves entering a long position on the 15-minute chart when a bullish engulfing pattern forms and the RSI enters oversold territory. Based on the observed 15-minute candle at 02:00 ET, the entry would occur at the close of that candle (0.2980), with an exit set for the close of the following day. This setup could capture a bounce from the key support level of 0.2970 and test the next resistance at 0.3000. A stop-loss would be placed below the low of the engulfing pattern (0.2960), while the take-profit aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.3005. Given the volume confirmation and RSI divergence, this pattern may present a high-probability trade for the next 24 hours.