Market Overview for Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) – October 12, 2025

• PHAUSDT drifted lower in early ET hours before staging a sharp rally into the afternoon, closing near 0.068.
• Volatility expanded during the dip below 0.067, with volume surging to over 1.4M, but momentum failed to confirm a breakdown.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 0.0677–0.0682 after 15:00 ET, signaling a potential reversal.
• RSI remains neutral while MACD shows divergence between price and momentum at the close.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, with price closing near the midline suggesting indecision.

Market Summary and Opening Observations

Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) opened at 0.0705 on October 11, 2025, at 12:00 ET, drifted lower to a session low of 0.0643, and closed at 0.068 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour range spanned from 0.0718 to 0.0643, with total volume reaching 33.9 million and turnover hitting approximately $2.36 million. A sharp move upward in the afternoon ET hours appears to have caught bearish momentum and may signal a short-term reversal.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of PHAUSDT over the past 24 hours shows a distinct bearish breakdown beginning around 19:00 ET, where price tested a 0.0675 support level and then broke below it. A notable 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the high of 0.0718 to the low of 0.0643 aligns with 0.0682, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed, indicating a potential short-covering rally. A key support level appears to be forming at 0.0675–0.0665, with a corresponding resistance zone at 0.0685–0.069. A doji around 0.0665 and a long lower wick at 0.0657 suggest increasing demand at that level.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute chart shows the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both below the current price, but the 20-period MA has begun to cross up from the 50-period MA in the final hours of the session. This suggests improving near-term momentum. RSI remains in the mid-40s, which is neutral territory, while MACD has flattened near the zero line with a bearish histogram. This divergence between price and momentum may hint at a possible reversal but is not yet a strong signal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the bearish leg between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, with price trading well below the lower band at one point. This volatility expansion suggests a period of heightened uncertainty. However, the price has since bounced and is currently sitting near the midline of the bands, indicating a consolidation phase. The width of the bands remains elevated compared to earlier in the session, suggesting ongoing volatility.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown, reaching a high of 820,042 at 21:30 ET, but remained relatively muted during the recovery phase. This volume divergence between the breakdown and the rebound may signal that the bearish move lacked strong follow-through. Turnover was highest during the 21:30 ET hour, reaching $55,183, while the rally later in the day saw lower turnover despite higher volume, suggesting retail-driven buying.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern and the divergence between price and momentum in MACD, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on a reversal buy setup at key support levels with a stop-loss just below the 0.0665 support. The strategy would trigger a long entry at the close of a bullish engulfing pattern, with a target near the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement at 0.069 and a stop-loss at 0.066. This setup would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing downside risk. The recent 15-minute reversal and volume divergence suggest a high-probability setup for this strategy.