Market Overview: Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) – November 3, 2025

• PHAUSDT posted a 24-hour low at 0.0400 after a sharp breakdown.
• Volume surged to 7.9 million at the breakdown, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold territory late in the session, hinting at potential rebound.
• Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, indicating rising volatility.
• Key Fibonacci levels now target 0.0506 and 0.0539 for near-term price action.

24-Hour Price Summary

Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) opened at 0.0594 on November 2, 2025, and reached an intraday high of 0.0629 before collapsing sharply to a 24-hour low of 0.0400. The price closed at 0.0502 by 12:00 ET on November 3, 2025, with a total traded volume of 14.4 million PHA and a notional turnover of $833,363 (calculated using average price).

Structure & Formations

The price action shows a strong bearish bias, with a key breakdown below the 0.0539 level occurring at 15:30 ET, followed by a sharp decline to 0.0400 by 15:45 ET. This breakdown appears to confirm a bearish trend reversal. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 17:00 ET, and a long-legged doji at 23:45 ET signaled indecision ahead of the downward move.

Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate support levels to watch include 0.0400 (recent low), 0.0468 (prior consolidation level), and 0.0506 (Fibonacci 23.6%). Resistance levels include 0.0539 (break-even point), 0.0568 (previous support-turned-resistance), and 0.0608 (15-min high).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are in bearish alignment, with the 20-SMA below the 50-SMA, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-SMA has been a strong resistance line in recent sessions, and PHAUSDT appears to be under strong downward pressure.

On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA is at 0.0575, and the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are at 0.0592 and 0.0598, respectively. The price has now closed below all three, signaling a potential medium-term bearish phase.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bearish at 17:00 ET, with the line crossing below the signal line, and remains in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The MACD histogram has shown a steady decline in bullish momentum since 19:00 ET.

The RSI has dropped into oversold territory (below 30) multiple times during the session, most notably after the breakdown at 15:45 ET. While this can signal a potential bounce, it could also indicate a continuation of the downtrend in a highly bearish environment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly over the last 12 hours, indicating rising volatility. At 15:45 ET, the price dropped below the lower band at 0.0400, a rare occurrence that may trigger a short-term rebound. However, given the strength of the breakdown, a retest of that level may not result in a meaningful bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 15:45 ET with 7.9 million PHA traded and a turnover of $408,884, marking the largest single 15-minute volume bar of the day. This confirms the breakdown below key support. Volume has remained elevated in the last 90 minutes, suggesting continued selling pressure.

Notional turnover shows a divergence with price action in the 60-minute timeframe, with turnover increasing while price remains near lows. This may indicate accumulation by longs or a potential short-covering rally, but given the bearish momentum, this could be misleading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute high of 0.0629 and low of 0.0400, the 23.6% retracement level is at 0.0506, and the 38.2% level is at 0.0539. These levels may act as psychological support for buyers.

On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent 0.0629–0.0506 range is at 0.0543, which has shown resistance in past sessions. A break below this level could lead to a test of the 0.0506 support again.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish setup, a backtest strategy could be built around identifying bearish engulfing and doji patterns preceding sharp selloffs. These patterns, when confirmed by volume surges and breakdowns below key levels, may indicate high-probability short entries.

For PHAUSDT, the breakdown at 15:45 ET followed a long-legged doji and was confirmed by a volume spike, making it a candidate for backtesting. The key would be to backtest this pattern on a larger historical dataset and assess its win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdown characteristics.