Market Overview for Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Price plunged 36% from $0.0950 to $0.0603 before stabilizing in the $0.0680–$0.0718 range.
• A massive bearish gap and breakdown below prior support levels suggest continued downside risk.
• Volatility spiked with a 10x volume surge at $0.0865–$0.0319, indicating panic selling.
• RSI bottomed at oversold levels (<30), hinting at potential short-term bounce. • Bollinger Bands widened dramatically during the selloff, signaling heightened uncertainty.

Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) opened at $0.0950 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.0963, a low of $0.0204, and closed at $0.0714 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The total volume was approximately 98,068,950.00 PHA, and notional turnover was around $6,747,398.31 over 24 hours.
The price structure over the past 24 hours shows a sharp bearish breakdown following a prolonged consolidation phase. A massive red candle on the 15-minute chart closed at $0.0319, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating strong selling pressure. The low at $0.0204 created a new psychological support level, though it failed to hold. A series of lower highs and lower lows from $0.0950 to $0.0603 confirmed a strong downtrend. Notable support levels currently appear at $0.0670 and $0.0640, both of which have been tested and rejected.
The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both in bearish alignment with the price, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs have also trended lower, maintaining a bearish bias. The MACD line crossed below the signal line with negative divergence, indicating weakening momentum. The RSI bottomed at 19 on the 15-minute chart, suggesting potential oversold conditions, though this is often extended in fast-moving bear markets.
Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically during the selloff, with price hitting the lower band at $0.0204 before rebounding. The bands are now contracting slightly, which could precede a breakout or reversal. Recent price action shows it staying within the upper and lower bands during consolidation, though volatility remains elevated. Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown phase, confirming the move, while turnover surged over 10x the average at the time of the selloff. No clear divergence between price and turnover was observed, suggesting the move was broad-based and not due to wash trading.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key $0.0963 high to the $0.0204 low suggest 38.2% at $0.0696 and 61.8% at $0.0599. Price is currently near the 38.2% retracement level at $0.0714, suggesting possible resistance ahead. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement has held as resistance twice in the past 12 hours, indicating a potential area for near-term consolidation or reversal.

**Backtest Hypothesis**
A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position upon a confirmed breakdown of the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed just above the most recent higher swing high. A take-profit target can be set using the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach would have captured the recent selloff from $0.0950 to $0.0603. Given the current price near the 38.2% retracement level and the bearish momentum indicated by the MACD and RSI, a similar short entry may be considered with caution, assuming volatility remains high and the trend holds.