Market Overview for Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• PHAUSDT declined by 0.77% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.1043
• Key support tested at 0.1033, with resistance forming near 0.1056
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, while volume shows moderate activity
• Price remains below the 50-period MA on the 15-min chart
• Volatility expanded in the late ET session, suggesting increased market activity

The Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) pair opened at 0.1055 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.1043 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The price traded between 0.1033 and 0.1065 during the 24-hour window, with a total volume of 6,964,698 and a notional turnover of approximately 697.30. The price action displayed a generally bearish bias, punctuated by brief countertrend rallies.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candles showed a clear bearish trend with key support levels forming around 0.1033–0.1042 and resistance at 0.1051–0.1065. A significant bearish engulfing pattern was observed between 17:15 and 18:00 ET as the price dropped from 0.1051 to 0.1035. Later, at 18:45–19:00 ET, a bullish engulfing pattern appeared as the pair rose from 0.1047 to 0.1053. These opposing patterns suggest ongoing indecision between buyers and sellers, with bears maintaining a slight advantage over the last 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both sit above the current price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 20-period MA was at ~0.1053 and the 50-period MA at ~0.1056 as of the last candle. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at ~0.1060, while the 200-period MA is at ~0.1075, indicating that the pair remains below its longer-term average, which could signal potential for further downside unless a strong reversal is seen.

MACD & RSI

The MACD was in negative territory, with the MACD line below the signal line and declining, which suggests weakening bullish momentum. The RSI is currently at 31.2, signaling oversold conditions and potentially hinting at a near-term buying opportunity. However, with price still declining on the 15-minute chart, caution is warranted before expecting a reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are key indicators in the proposed backtest strategy. The strategy suggests entering long positions when the RSI falls below 30 and the MACD line crosses above the signal line, confirming a potential bullish reversal. Short positions are recommended when the RSI rises above 70 and the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. This strategy would be backtested on the 15-minute candles using the full OHLCV dataset provided to assess its profitability and risk exposure over the last 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands indicate a moderate expansion in volatility, with the bands ranging between 0.1025 and 0.1087. The closing price at 0.1043 sits comfortably within the bands, but closer to the lower band, reinforcing the current oversold condition. A break above the upper band could indicate a short-term reversal, but with volume not confirming such strength, a continuation of the downward trend appears more likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:15–18:00 ET window, where the pair fell from 0.1051 to 0.1035, with a volume of 1,135,893. This aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and confirms the strength of the decline. Turnover also followed a similar pattern, rising during key bearish moves. There was no clear divergence between price and volume, but the overall volume levels remain moderate compared to potential breakouts or sharp reversals.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the most recent 15-minute swing from 0.1051 to 0.1033, key levels include 38.2% at 0.1044 and 61.8% at 0.1039. The pair has tested 0.1044 multiple times, suggesting it may serve as a short-term support or consolidation zone. A break below 0.1039 could signal further downside to the next key level near 0.1033.