Market Overview for Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• PHAUSDT declined from 0.1074 to 0.0968, closing with bearish momentum after a sharp drop late in the 24-hour period.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound may be near, though downward bias remains.
• Volatility surged as price tested key support levels, with volume expanding notably during the drop to 0.0927.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the price drifted lower, indicating growing uncertainty and diverging market sentiment.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early ET hours, reinforcing the downward trend and signaling strong seller control.

Phala Network/Tether (PHAUSDT) opened at 0.1074 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 0.0968 at 12:00 ET today, with a high of 0.1074 and a low of 0.0927. The price action reflected bearish continuation, especially during the late night to early morning ET window. Total volume reached 6,195,485.0, with notional turnover reaching ~$1.1 million, showing heightened market activity and a significant price/turnover divergence during the selloff.

Over the past 24 hours, PHAUSDT traded in a bearish channel, breaking below key support levels and forming a large bearish engulfing pattern during the early ET hours. The 15-minute chart shows clear signs of a shift in control, with sellers dominating price action after 00:00 ET. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, reinforcing the downward bias. A critical support zone appears to have formed near 0.0927–0.0930, where price consolidated briefly before resuming the decline. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines are aligned in a bearish bias, with the price continuing to trade below all three.

The RSI on the 15-minute chart dipped into oversold territory, reaching a low of 28, suggesting a short-term rebound could be possible. However, the bearish momentum remains intact, as evidenced by the negative MACD line and histogram. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly as the price drifted lower, indicating growing volatility and uncertainty. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting continued pressure. Fibonacci retracements show that the 61.8% level of the recent high–low swing is now at 0.0945, a potential near-term target for support if the decline continues. A rebound above 0.0975 could indicate a temporary shift in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy described involves a simple trend-following approach using the 50-period and 200-period EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart. A long entry is triggered when the 50 EMA crosses above the 200 EMA, and a short entry is taken when the 50 EMA crosses below the 200 EMA. Stops are placed below key Fibonacci support levels, with targets set at the nearest resistance or trendline break. Over the 24-hour period, the 50 EMA was below the 200 EMA for most of the time, reinforcing the short bias. Had the strategy been applied at the start of the drop, it would have captured the majority of the decline. The current alignment of EMAs and RSI suggests that any near-term bounce should be treated with caution, as the bearish trend remains intact.