Market Overview: Perpetual Protocol/Tether USDt (PERPUSDT)

• The 24-hour period saw a bullish reversal from 0.2537 to 0.2672, with a final close at 0.2668 on 15-minute data
• Key resistance appears to form near 0.2670–0.2680, with 0.2657 acting as immediate support
• Momentum remains strong, with RSI holding above 55 and MACD showing bullish divergence
• Volatility expanded sharply in late trading, with Bollinger Bands widening after a contraction
• Turnover surged to $5.3M as price pushed past key Fibonacci retracements

Market Performance and Price Structure

Perpetual Protocol/Tether USDt (PERPUSDT) opened at 0.2537 on 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 0.2668 as of 12:00 ET today. The 24-hour high reached 0.2682, while the low hit 0.2526. The pair surged over 5.5% during the session, with total volume exceeding 2.3 million and notional turnover surpassing $5.3 million. A multi-leg bullish pattern emerged during the latter half of the session, particularly in the last 6 hours, where volume and price action aligned to push past prior resistance.

The structure shows a strong base between 0.2530–0.2560, with key resistance forming at 0.2660–0.2680. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.2631–0.2638 at 10:00 ET, confirming a break above the 0.2631 Fibonacci level.

Moving Averages and Trend Indicators

Short-term momentum is reinforced by the 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA crossing to the bullish side in the last 3 hours. The 20SMA currently sits at 0.2664, just below the 50SMA at 0.2667, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA are still divergent, with the price above the 50DMA but not yet crossing the 200DMA, signaling a possible continuation of the longer-term bullish phase.

The RSI stands at 60 on the 15-minute chart, showing strong upward momentum without yet reaching overbought levels. MACD remains above the zero line with a narrow histogram, indicating the trend is still gaining strength.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly over the past 6 hours following a contraction period, which may indicate the start of a new trend phase. Price currently trades near the upper band at 0.2670, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation could follow.

Fibonacci retracements show the 61.8% level at 0.2637 was a key psychological threshold. Price pushed through this and the 78.6% level at 0.2670. A test of the 100% extension at 0.2685 appears likely in the next 24 hours.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume and turnover spiked sharply in the last 6 hours, with the largest notional turnover occurring between 13:00 and 15:00 ET. The price and turnover are aligned, confirming the recent bullish move. However, divergence between price and volume in the first half of the session suggests a prior bearish consolidation phase, followed by a breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action aligns well with a breakout-based trading strategy that targets moves above key Fibonacci retracement levels and uses moving averages as confirmation tools. A potential backtest could be designed to enter long positions on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.2637) with a stop below the recent swing low and a take-profit at 0.2670 or the 100% extension. This strategy would benefit from the current RSI and MACD conditions, which support a continuation of the bullish trend.