Market Overview of Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) for 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price fell from $0.1648 to $0.1484, with increased bearish momentum in the final hours.
• RSI showed overbought conditions early, then dropped sharply into oversold territory.
• Volume spiked during the downward move, confirming bearish bias.

The Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) pair opened at $0.1634 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1484 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $0.1648 and a low of $0.1481. Total volume was 13,634,050.71, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $2,071,094.59 over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations indicate strong bearish pressure as price dropped below key support levels around $0.156 and $0.151. Several bearish engulfing patterns were observed in the final hours, reinforcing the downward trend. A potential short-term support is forming near $0.148, with a doji observed on the final candle suggesting possible exhaustion in the move lower. Resistance appears to be clustered between $0.152 and $0.158, which could act as a psychological barrier for any near-term bounce.

On the 15-minute chart, 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in bearish alignment, with the price trading below both. The 50-period MA, at around $0.154, is acting as a dynamic resistance, and the 20-period MA is declining sharply. On a daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day MAs are also bearish, with the 100-day at $0.158 and 200-day near $0.161 forming a descending bias.

Momentum indicators reflect a strong bearish shift. MACD moved into negative territory, with a bearish crossover and a wide histogram divergence. RSI collapsed from overbought conditions above 70 to under 30 within the final 6 hours, signaling oversold territory. This suggests a potential pause in the move lower, but bearish divergence remains a concern.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price decline, with PERPUSDT trading near the lower band for much of the session. Volatility appears to have peaked during the final candle, with price hovering just above the lower band at $0.148. This may hint at a possible near-term bounce, but continued weakness could see the pair break below the $0.148 level.

Volume and notional turnover were both highest during the late session decline, particularly in the 15-minute candles between 15:00 and 18:00 ET. The increase in volume confirmed the bearish price action, with no divergence observed. The final candle’s low volume and doji pattern may indicate a temporary pause in the trend.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 15-minute swing from $0.1648 to $0.1481 show the 61.8% level at around $0.154 and 38.2% at $0.157. Price tested the 61.8% level during the afternoon but failed to hold, continuing its descent. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger move is near $0.148, which may hold as a key level for near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the bearish momentum and overbought to oversold RSI swing, a potential backtest could involve shorting after the first RSI close above 70, with a target to exit when RSI falls below 50 or after 5 days, whichever comes first. Applying this logic to PERPUSDT would require data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08, using a 14-period RSI. While this strategy may capture sharp bearish moves like today’s, it would also risk exposure to false signals and sharp rebounds, particularly given the low-volume doji at the session close. Testing this approach on a broader dataset would help assess its effectiveness for volatility-driven, high-volume pairs like PERPUSDT.