Market Overview for Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) saw a 24-hour low of 0.2622 and closed at 0.2684 amid declining momentum.
• A bearish divergence between price and RSI suggests weakening downward momentum.
• Volatility expanded in the last 6 hours, with increased volume and sharp price declines.
• Key support was tested around 0.2670, with potential for further downside.

Market Summary and Opening Statement

Perpetual Protocol/Tether (PERPUSDT) opened at 0.2795 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.2848 before closing at 0.2684 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,306,486.45 units, with a turnover of $369,761.87, indicating high liquidity and aggressive selling pressure in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours formed a broad bearish pattern, with a clear breakdown below key support levels. A 15-minute doji appeared around 0.2798 (2025-10-10 021500), indicating indecision and foreshadowing the sharp decline later in the session. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged after the 0.2848 high, confirming the shift in sentiment. The key support level of 0.2770 was tested multiple times and appears to have been rejected, with the price eventually settling near 0.2684.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly in the morning, with the 20 MA pulling below the 50 MA, reinforcing the downtrend. The MACD line turned negative in the early evening session, crossing below the signal line with a bearish divergence visible. This divergence between price and MACD suggests the potential for further downside if momentum continues to erode.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

The RSI moved into oversold territory below 30 around 0.2720, suggesting a potential rebound might be near. However, the price did not show any signs of reversal, indicating weak conviction in the oversold bounce. Bollinger Bands widened in the final 6 hours of the session, with price trading near the lower band for most of the last 3 hours, pointing to heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after the 0.2848 high, particularly between 17:30 and 20:15 ET, with a spike of over 294,423 units at 0.2832. Turnover also spiked during the sharp decline, especially in the last 3 hours of trading. Notably, the price dropped sharply with high volume and turnover, indicating capitulation from short-term buyers and aggressive shorting.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent 15-minute swing between 0.2795 and 0.2848 was at 0.2811, which was tested but not held. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger swing from 0.2801 to 0.2776 came in at 0.2789, a level that held temporarily but failed to reverse the trend. This suggests that sellers are in control, with buyers struggling to push the price back toward prior resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias triggered on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a crossover of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The trade would be entered with a stop just above the high of the engulfing pattern and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the immediate swing. Given the recent behavior of PERPUSDT, this approach could have yielded positive results in the 24-hour period, particularly as the price continued lower after the pattern was confirmed. The MACD divergence and RSI oversold bounce failed to trigger a reversal, suggesting the strategy might be well-suited for this pair in the current market environment.