Market Overview: PEPEJPY – Volatile 24-Hour Move Closes in Oversold Territory

• PEPEJPY opened at 0.001501 and reached a high of 0.001533 before closing at 0.001459.
• A sharp bearish reversal unfolded after 19:00 ET, with a 1.7% drop over 3 hours.
• Volatility surged during the breakdown, with intraday ranges expanding from 0.00002 to 0.00005.
• RSI entered oversold territory (below 30), while MACD turned negative and diverged from price.
• Volume spiked during the breakdown but declined afterward, suggesting fading momentum.

The 24-hour candle for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001501 and closed at 0.001459, with an intraday high of 0.001533 and a low of 0.001431. Total volume amounted to 1584431563.0, and notional turnover reached significant levels due to high trading intensity during key swings. The session was defined by a bearish breakdown after 19:00 ET and a closing in oversold technical territory.

Structure and formations revealed a clear bearish breakout as price dropped below key support at 0.001501, confirmed by a closing candlestick with a long lower wick and bearish engulfing pattern. A 15-minute doji near 0.001503 suggested indecision before the move lower. Resistance levels at 0.001513 and 0.001524 were decisively broken, with 0.001501 now likely transitioning into near-term support. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were bearishly aligned, reinforcing the downward bias during the session’s final hours.

MACD crossed into negative territory and remained bearish for much of the session, with a bearish crossover at 19:00 ET coinciding with the breakdown. RSI hit oversold levels (under 30) in the final 6 hours, indicating potential short-term exhaustion, though divergence between price and RSI suggested bearish momentum could persist. Bollinger Bands showed an initial contraction during the mid-session consolidation followed by a sharp expansion during the breakdown, signaling increased volatility. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, confirming the oversold status.

Volume was elevated during the breakdown phase, peaking at 167769745.0 for the 19:00 ET candle, but declined afterward, suggesting fading momentum. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with confirmation of the breakdown in the first half of the session and a divergence in the latter half. Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 15-minute swing from 0.001511 to 0.001533 showed price finding temporary support at the 61.8% level (0.001518), but the 38.2% level (0.001524) was broken decisively. Daily-level retracement from the previous day’s high at 0.001533 to the current low at 0.001431 indicated the 61.8% level is now at 0.001467, where a short-term bounce may occur.

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on bearish engulfing patterns and doji formation when RSI is above 50 and the 20-period moving average is bearishly aligned with price. Stop-loss is placed at the high of the confirmation candle, and take-profit is set at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels of the recent swing. This strategy aligns with the breakdown observed in the 24-hour session and may have captured significant downward movement during key turning points.