Market Overview for PEPEJPY on 2025-09-19

• PEPEJPY declines sharply from 0.001724 to 0.001606, ending 9.5% lower in 24 hours.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.001724–0.001694, signaling increased bear momentum.
• Volume surged at 20:00–20:15 ET with a high of 0.001696, but failed to push price higher.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, indicating potential near-term reversal could emerge.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion as volatility increased sharply during the late ET session.

The PEPEJPY pair opened at 0.001703 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and hit a high of 0.001725 before falling to a low of 0.001605 by the close of the 24-hour period at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 111,030,258,412.00, with a notional turnover of 186,050,560.57. The pair closed at 0.001606, down from 0.001703.

Structure & Formations
PEPEJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.001724–0.001694, signaling a shift in momentum. A long bearish body followed by smaller bullish wicks suggests bears are in control. Key support levels are identified at 0.001625 and 0.001605, with resistance at 0.001636 and 0.001652. A potential bullish reversal could emerge if price holds above 0.001625.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have converged at 0.001634–0.001636, currently acting as a dynamic resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 0.001660, above current price levels, suggesting bearish momentum is likely to continue.

MACD & RSI
The MACD remains bearish with a declining histogram and a slow line below zero, indicating sustained downward momentum. RSI has dropped to oversold levels around 30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce may be in play. However, sustained bullish action above 0.001625 is needed to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands have widened significantly since 20:00 ET, indicating a surge in volatility. Price is currently near the lower band, suggesting oversold conditions and potential for a mean reversion. A break above the upper band may be unlikely without a strong reversal.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked at 20:00–20:15 ET and again at 15:00–15:15 ET, coinciding with sharp declines. Notional turnover reached a peak of 69,040,177.68 at 04:15 ET. The divergence between falling price and high volume indicates bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements
Key Fibonacci levels for the recent 0.001724–0.001605 swing include 0.001649 (38.2%) and 0.001629 (61.8%). Price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a potential pivot point for near-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis
The provided backtesting strategy aims to capture short-term directional bias by identifying and entering trades on confirmed candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, doji) in conjunction with RSI and MACD divergence. Using a 15-minute timeframe, the strategy would enter a short on a bearish engulfing pattern with RSI below 50 and a bearish MACD crossover, with a stop above the high of the pattern and a target at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI, this approach could have triggered a short entry near 0.001724 with a target near 0.001605. While the pattern played out as expected, tighter stops would be necessary given the high volatility and thin wicks. A refined version could include volume confirmation to avoid false breakouts in thinly traded assets like PEPEJPY.