Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY): Sharp Reversal and Volatility Expansion

• PEPEJPY rose to 0.001605 intraday before a sharp reversal near 12:00 ET, closing at 0.001589
• Momentum shifted midday as RSI approached overbought and reversed into bearish territory
• Volatility expanded after 22:00 ET, with volume peaking at 931 million and confirming the reversal
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the high at 0.001605, suggesting resistance at 0.001605 may be strong
• Price retested 0.001588–0.001591 as support, with 0.001583 acting as a short-term floor

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001571 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.001605, and closed at 0.001589 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour period saw price trade between 0.001561 and 0.001605, with a total volume of 10.55 billion and a notional turnover of 16.08 million. A bearish reversal marked the final 24 hours, signaling a shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern near the high at 0.001605, indicating rejection at that level. A key support cluster emerged between 0.001588 and 0.001591, with price rebounding multiple times in the 0.001583–0.001588 range. A doji formed near 0.001591, suggesting indecision among buyers and reinforcing the potential for a short-term pullback. Resistance remains strong above 0.001605, while 0.001575 appears to be a short-term support pivot.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed lower into bearish territory during the morning, confirming the reversal. The 50-EMA crossed above the 100-EMA early in the session, but lost bullish momentum by the close. The 200-day EMA currently lies around 0.001585, suggesting a potential pivot point in the days ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative from a morning peak and crossed below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI peaked near 72, indicating overbought conditions, and reversed downward sharply, reaching a midday low of 45. This suggests a possible continuation of bearish pressure unless a strong reversal forms in the next 24 hours. The divergence between price and RSI suggests that the current downward move may have more legs.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy aligns well with the observed RSI divergence and bearish engulfing pattern. A short entry at 0.001602 with a stop just above 0.001605 and a target at 0.001585 could have captured most of the reversal move. Historical data suggests that RSI divergence often precedes a trend change by 2–4 hours, making early entry key for maximizing returns while minimizing risk.