Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) – October 12, 2025

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• Price fell 0.44% to ¥0.001031 in 24 hours, with sharp bearish swings from ¥0.001086 to ¥0.001015.
• High volatility seen in early session, with sharp rebounds in overnight trading.
• Volumes surged to ¥314.35M at 09:15 ET, but price failed to confirm with strong follow-through.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum divergence late in the session.
• Bollinger Bands tightened ahead of the break, indicating potential for a breakout.

24-Hour Price and Volume Action

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at ¥0.001076 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, and reached a high of ¥0.001113 before closing at ¥0.001031 on October 12 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded within a volatile range, dipping to a low of ¥0.001011. Total volume amounted to 7.53 billion PEPE, while notional turnover reached ¥735.29 million. The asset appears to be consolidating after a sharp correction in the overnight session.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at ¥0.001086 to ¥0.001073 (17:15–17:45 ET) and later a hanging man at ¥0.001031 (13:45–14:00 ET), indicating potential bearish sentiment. A doji formed at ¥0.00108 (17:45–18:00 ET) and at ¥0.001006 (02:45–03:00 ET), signaling indecision and possible turning points. Price found key support at ¥0.001011 and ¥0.001025, with resistance at ¥0.001036 and ¥0.001044.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (¥0.001033) and 50SMA (¥0.001035) converged, with price hovering slightly below, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50DMA (¥0.001062) is above the 200DMA (¥0.001045), indicating a long-term bearish bias. The MACD line crossed below the signal line late in the session (around 04:45–05:00 ET), reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory (below 30) at 02:00–03:00 ET but failed to recover above 50, suggesting weak buying interest.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, peaked early on October 11 and then contracted, with price oscillating within the bands. A recent swing high of ¥0.001113 and swing low of ¥0.001011 set key Fibonacci retracement levels at 38.2% (¥0.001067), 50% (¥0.001062), and 61.8% (¥0.001057). Price may test ¥0.001036 next, with a potential bounce to ¥0.001044 if buyers emerge.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a mean-reversion strategy based on the Bollinger Bands contraction and RSI oversold readings could offer a short-term trading opportunity. A long entry could be triggered when price closes above the 20SMA and RSI crosses back above 50, with a stop-loss near the recent swing low of ¥0.001011. Alternatively, a short trade might be initiated if the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ¥0.001057 fails to hold and RSI remains below 50.