Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY): Bullish Momentum and Volatility Divergence

• PEPEJPY surged to a 24-hour high of ¥0.001187, reflecting strong bullish momentum after a key breakout.
• Volume spiked sharply during the overnight Asian session, confirming the strength of the move higher.
• RSI and MACD show overbought conditions, suggesting potential pullback risks ahead.
• A critical support level forms at ¥0.001152, with a broader consolidation range between ¥0.001132 and ¥0.001187.
• Price appears to trade within a rising wedge pattern on the 15-minute chart, pointing to possible continuation or reversal.

Opening Summary and 24-Hour Performance

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at ¥0.001096 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of ¥0.001187 by the close of the 24-hour window on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 4,492,845,140.0, while notional turnover amounted to ¥5,114,094.4. The pair demonstrated robust upward momentum, with a closing price of ¥0.001187, reflecting a nearly 17% rally over the period.

Structure & Formations

The price action forms a rising wedge pattern on the 15-minute chart, with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Key resistance levels appear at ¥0.00116, ¥0.001174, and ¥0.001185, all of which were tested and exceeded during the overnight surge. A critical support level forms at ¥0.001152, which was briefly tested but held, indicating strong conviction among buyers. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around ¥0.00114 to ¥0.00116, while a doji formed at ¥0.001156, suggesting indecision before the breakout.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a positive divergence with price, with the histogram expanding as the price surged above ¥0.00117. The 12/26/9 MACD line crossed above the signal line, reinforcing the bullish bias. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) in the final hours, suggesting potential exhaustion in the rally. While this may invite short-term profit-taking, the strong volume profile implies that momentum could persist if buyers remain active.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the rally, with the 20-period midline sitting around ¥0.001159. Price spent much of the day above the upper band, suggesting strong volatility and a high conviction in the bullish trend. A period of contraction was visible early in the Asian session, but the expansion after ¥0.00116 indicated renewed interest and speculative activity.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the Asian session, with the most notable spike occurring around ¥0.00116–0.001174. This coincided with the price breaking above ¥0.00116 and then ¥0.001174, confirming the strength of the move. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, indicating heavy participation from institutional and high-volume traders. However, a divergence appears in the final hours of the 24-hour window, where volume declined despite price pushing higher—suggesting potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from ¥0.00114 to ¥0.001187, the 38.2% level at ¥0.001166 and the 61.8% level at ¥0.001179 were key targets during the rally. Price briefly pulled back to ¥0.001162 and ¥0.001168, aligning with these levels, before resuming the upward move. Daily retracements from previous lows also show ¥0.001152 as a significant psychological support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong momentum and overbought RSI, a backtest strategy could be constructed using a MACD-based entry with a fixed holding period or stop-loss mechanism. For example, a buy signal could be triggered when MACD crosses above the signal line and RSI is above 50, with a 10-day holding period or a 5% stop-loss. Testing this strategy on the PEPEJPY 15-minute chart from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-13 would assess its viability during both trending and consolidative periods. Using the daily close as the price series, this strategy could be evaluated for profitability and risk-adjusted returns.