Market Overview: Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) 24-Hour Summary

• Price action shows a bearish trend with a 0.44% drop from open to close.
• Key resistance at 0.001608 and support at 0.001583 defined today’s range.
• Volatility expanded in the morning but has since narrowed into a consolidation.
• Momentum remains neutral, with RSI hovering near 50 and MACD close to zero.
• Volume distribution shows increased activity in the morning session before tapering off.

24-Hour Price Action

The Pepe/Yen pair (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001605 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.001617, and a low of 0.001563 before closing at 0.001577 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 22,128,868,460.0 and notional turnover (amount × price) was approximately ¥35,877,872.48. Price action showed a clear bearish bias, with a significant breakdown in the morning and a gradual consolidation toward the end of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price found critical resistance at 0.001608 and support at 0.001583, which defined today’s range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.001608 at 22:45 ET, signaling a likely reversal in bullish momentum. The price then consolidated into a narrow range, suggesting market indecision. A doji formed at 0.001592 in the early morning, indicating a potential pause in the bearish trend and a possible near-term bottoming process.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a downtrend, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA sits just above 0.001600, while the 20-period MA is closer to the current price at 0.001590. RSI has been hovering near 50 for much of the session, indicating a balanced momentum with no clear overbought or oversold signals. MACD has remained near zero, with the histogram showing a mixed pattern of bearish and bullish divergences in the afternoon, suggesting a potential continuation of the current trend.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands show a moderate widening in the early morning, indicating increased volatility, followed by a contraction in the afternoon. Price remained within the bands, suggesting a continuation of the defined range. Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key 15-minute swing (0.001617–0.001583) indicate 0.001598 (38.2%) as a minor support and 0.001590 (61.8%) as a potential bounce level. Price has stalled around 0.001577, below these levels, signaling a deeper test of the psychological floor at 0.001560.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a short position when RSI crosses below 50 and price breaks below the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level (38.2%). A take-profit target is placed at the 61.8% level or at the next key support identified in the daily structure. Based on today’s action, a short trade placed at 0.001605 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET would have triggered a valid entry as RSI dipped below 50 and price broke the 20-MA. A stop-loss at 0.001598 (38.2%) and take-profit at 0.001583 would have resulted in a 1.16% gain, suggesting the strategy could be viable in similar market conditions with defined volatility and clear trend signals.