Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

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• Price declined sharply from 0.001346 to 0.000456 during a 15-minute candle on 2025-10-10 at 21:30, marking the session’s largest drop.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions by mid-session, but the downtrend continued with no immediate bounce.
• Volatility surged during the drop, with intraday range of 0.001346 to 0.000456 and volume peaking at 7.6 billion units.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the sharp selloff, suggesting continuation of the downtrend.
• Turnover remained elevated in the final hours, indicating sustained interest despite the bearish bias.

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001340 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.001355 before plummeting to an intraday low of 0.000456. It closed at 0.001094 as of 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 71.78 billion units, with a turnover of approximately $78.4 million.

The pair displayed strong bearish momentum during the early part of the session, marked by a sharp drop of nearly 65% in a single 15-minute candle. This decline was led by heavy selling pressure, confirmed by a massive volume spike of 7.6 billion units in that interval. Notable support levels emerged around 0.000785 and 0.001011, where price found temporary relief. Resistance is now visible at 0.001121, the opening price of the large bearish candle on 2025-10-10 at 21:30.

Candlestick formations included a large bearish engulfing pattern during the sharp selloff and multiple doji in the final hours of the session, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with price closing below both, reinforcing a short-term downtrend. The 200-period moving average remains above current levels, suggesting that longer-term bearish pressure is intact. The 50-period MA is approaching the 20-period MA, hinting at possible bearish crossover in the near term.

Bollinger Bands were in a state of expansion during the early session, reflecting the heightened volatility, particularly during the sharp selloff. As the session progressed, bands began to narrow slightly, suggesting a potential slowdown in volatility. Price remains near the lower band, a sign of oversold conditions. RSI dipped into oversold territory in mid-session, but failed to recover, indicating weak bullish momentum. MACD confirmed the bearish bias, with the histogram showing a strong negative divergence and the MACD line crossing below the signal line.

The 20-period and 50-period Fibonacci retracement levels from the major 15-minute high of 0.001355 to the low of 0.000456 were key for intra-day trading. The 61.8% level at 0.001003 was a notable support area, with price bouncing from that level and finding a temporary floor. The 38.2% level at 0.001185 appears as potential resistance if the pair attempts to rally.

Pepe/Yen appears to be in a consolidation phase after the large selloff, but the bearish momentum remains intact. Traders may watch for a break below the 0.001011 support for further downside potential. A bullish reversal is unlikely without a strong volume confirmation or a clear break above 0.001121. Investors should remain cautious given the high volatility and potential for further corrections in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve short entries at the close of the bearish engulfing candle on 2025-10-10 at 21:30, with a stop-loss placed above the 0.001121 resistance. The target could be set at the next major support at 0.000785 or 0.00083 based on Bollinger Band and Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD. Historical volatility and volume patterns from the 15-minute data suggest that such a setup could have a high probability of success in a continuation of the downtrend, assuming no unexpected macro events or news.