Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-22 12:00 ET

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• PEPEJPY traded in a broad 0.0014–0.001562 range, with a 12.1% 24-hour drop to 0.001439.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 02:00 ET, with a 0.001498–0.001556 swing showing bearish exhaustion.
• A long bearish candle closed at 0.001439, with 0.00144 and 0.001445 key near-term supports.
• Turnover surged to $1.45B at 06:15 ET before reversing to $0.66B at 08:45 ET, hinting at short-term profit-taking.
• RSI hit oversold levels by 15:00 ET, but failed to trigger a strong reversal, suggesting bearish momentum is intact.

Overview and Context

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001562 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001439 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The pair reached a high of 0.001569 and a low of 0.0014. Total trading volume over the period was 13,680,519,470.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $19,431,536 (calculated using mid-price approximations). The 24-hour candle showed a clear bearish bias, with price failing to retest key prior support levels.

Structure & Formations

The last 24 hours saw a strong bearish bias with multiple large-bodied bearish candles and minimal bullish follow-through. A key 0.001498–0.001556 bearish swing formed after 02:00 ET, with a 0.001502–0.001504 bullish bounce failing to hold. A doji formed around 0.00144 at 07:45 ET, suggesting short-term indecision. The 0.001437–0.001441 price consolidation appears to be forming a new near-term support cluster.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have been trending lower, with the price currently below both. The 50-period SMA is at 0.001449, while the 20-period is closer at 0.001444. This suggests bearish control at short-term timeframes. On daily charts, the 50-period SMA is at 0.001512, and the 200-period SMA is at 0.001561, placing current price near the -33.8% Fibonacci retracement of the larger bearish move.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has been negative for most of the session, with a bearish divergence noted at 04:45 ET and 06:45 ET. The histogram remains below zero. The RSI hit 29 by 15:00 ET but failed to rebound, suggesting oversold conditions are not triggering buyers. A reading of 26 at close indicates significant bearish exhaustion, though without a clear reversal candle, continuation of the decline is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart show a recent expansion after a tight consolidation between 0.00144–0.00145. Price has remained near the lower band since 06:45 ET, with the 20-period band at 0.001445 and the lower band at 0.001437. The current price of 0.001439 suggests a potential test of lower band support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 06:15 ET with a $1.45B turnover, marking the largest 15-minute turnover in the 24-hour window. This was followed by a bearish 0.001498–0.001439 move with decreasing volume, suggesting profit-taking after the initial dump. A 0.00144–0.001445 price consolidation was accompanied by mixed volume, with no strong divergence evident.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.0014–0.001562 move, the 38.2% level is at 0.001446 and the 61.8% at 0.001432. Price currently sits near the 38.2% retracement, which may serve as a short-term support or pivot zone. The daily chart shows a 0.001506–0.001569 swing with 38.2% at 0.001539 and 61.8% at 0.001519—both above current levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on bearish Bollinger Band breakouts and RSI oversold levels could be applied to PEPEJPY. The idea is to enter short positions when price breaks the lower Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI below 30, and confirm with bearish divergence in the MACD histogram. Stops would be placed above the 50-period SMA, and targets could include the next Fibonacci level at 0.001432 or 0.001425. This strategy relies on a continuation of bearish momentum and needs to be applied with caution as divergence in volume and price could signal a reversal.