Market Overview: Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• PEPEJPY opened at $0.000942 and reached a high of $0.000975 during a bullish breakout.
• A late-day pullback to $0.000927 signals potential short-term volatility and bearish pressure.
• Volume surged during key swings, especially around $0.000975 and $0.00096, confirming price action.
• RSI moved from overbought to oversold territory, showing mixed momentum signals.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, reflecting heightened volatility.

Opening and 24-Hour Summary

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at $0.000942 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET. Over the next 24 hours, the pair surged to a high of $0.000975 before retreating to a low of $0.000927. The 24-hour close at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11 was $0.000927. Total volume reached 1,972,635,700.0, while notional turnover was not explicitly provided but appears to confirm key price moves, especially during the late-night surge to $0.000975.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

Structure on the 15-minute chart shows a bullish breakout above $0.000963, confirmed by a long white candle and a potential bullish engulfing pattern. The move back to $0.000927 formed a bearish reversal pattern, including a spinning top and a dark cloud cover. Key support levels are forming near $0.000944 and $0.000927, with resistance near $0.000963 and $0.000975.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bullish, with the 20 MA currently above the 50 MA. On the daily chart, the 50 MA is above the 100 MA, supporting a short-term bullish bias. The RSI has moved from overbought to oversold territory, suggesting that momentum may be weakening. MACD is in positive territory but has started to flatten, indicating possible exhaustion in the bullish move.

Bollinger Bands are currently in a wide configuration, reflecting high volatility, with price bouncing off the lower band at key support levels. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upmove from $0.000927 to $0.000975 is at $0.000957, aligning with a key psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI Overbought-to-Oversold swing strategy applied to PEPEJPY from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11 has shown a total return of –11.76% and an annualized return of 7.19%. However, the maximum drawdown of –52.82% indicates high risk. Risk-adjusted performance is weak, with a Sharpe ratio of ~0.12. While profitable trades averaged +32.9%, losses averaged –18.5%, and the win rate was not sufficient to offset drawdowns. The strategy appears to struggle with the high volatility and mixed momentum of PEPEJPY over the tested period. Additional filters or alternative parameters could be necessary to improve performance.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caution

Looking ahead, PEPEJPY may face key resistance at $0.000963 and $0.000975, with a potential retest of these levels expected if bulls regain control. A breakdown below $0.000944 could confirm a bearish trend, extending the pair to $0.000927 or lower. Investors should closely monitor volume patterns and RSI divergence for early signs of trend reversal.