Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) on 2025-09-25

• Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) ended lower after a volatile 24-hour session, with bears gaining control in the final 15 minutes.
• Price broke below a key support level at 0.001420, suggesting increased bearish momentum.
• High volume in early morning ET indicates intensified selling pressure and confirmation of the downward move.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish divergence, with RSI approaching oversold levels and MACD showing bearish crossover.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, suggesting a high probability of further directional movement.

Price Action and Market Sentiment

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001455 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.001456 during the session. However, by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, the pair closed at 0.001398, having traded as low as 0.001375. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 22,222,959,649.0, and notional turnover amounted to $31,289,028.70 based on average price. The pair exhibited a bearish bias, with price breaking down through key support and a series of large, bearish closing candles.

Structure and Key Levels

A critical support level at 0.001420 was decisively breached in the late ET hours, confirming a breakdown in sentiment. The price found temporary resistance at 0.001445–0.001455 during the initial part of the session but failed to maintain above that range. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.001445–0.001446 around 04:30 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. A doji candle at 0.001431–0.001432 at 00:45 ET also indicated indecision, followed by a strong bearish continuation.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both fell below price, reinforcing the bearish bias. RSI approached oversold levels at 30 during the final 6 hours, indicating possible short-term exhaustion. MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram remained negative, pointing to ongoing selling pressure. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the late hours, suggesting heightened volatility and a higher likelihood of a directional continuation.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked to over 1.6 billion at 14:30 ET, indicating a significant sell-off. The most recent 15-minute candle at 14:30 ET closed at 0.001422 with heavy volume, reinforcing the breakdown. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, reaching approximately $1.9 million for that candle. However, divergence appeared in the late hours as volume declined while price continued to fall, which may indicate a temporary pause in momentum.

Fibonacci and Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing high at 0.001456 and low at 0.001375, the 61.8% level is at 0.001415. The price briefly bounced near this level but failed to hold above it, suggesting bears may target the 38.2% retracement at 0.001425 next. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the prior 15-minute high/low swing was at 0.001437, which was tested and broken through with bearish confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum, a backtesting strategy could involve a short bias once price breaks below the 0.001420 support with confirmation on a 15-minute close below that level. A stop-loss could be placed just above the last swing high at 0.001445, while a target could be set at the next Fibonacci level at 0.001415 and potentially beyond to 0.001375. This setup aligns with the MACD bearish crossover, RSI divergence, and volume confirmation observed in recent candles. Such a strategy would require close monitoring of volume and price action for potential reversals or exhaustion signals.