Market Overview for Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY): 2025-09-05

• Price surged from 0.001405 to 0.001458 on elevated volume before reversing sharply.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the early hours of 09/05, with a 15-minute candle hitting 0.001458.
• RSI and MACD showed strong bullish momentum early, followed by bearish divergence in the latter half.
• Key support identified at 0.001420–0.001410, with potential for further retracement.

• Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, with price closing near the upper band on 09/05.

Pepe/Yen (PEPEJPY) opened at 0.001405 on 2025-09-04 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 0.001458 before closing at 0.001413 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 10,466,692,439.0 and a notional turnover of ~$14,786,070.42, based on average price estimates.

Structure & Formations

Price rallied strongly from 0.001405 to 0.001458 in the early hours of 09/05, forming a sharp bullish candle followed by a bearish reversal on the 15-minute chart. Key resistance levels formed near 0.001440–0.001458, while key support emerged at 0.001420–0.001410. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the rally, indicating exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were bullish during the morning surge, but turned bearish as price pulled back after 09/05 14:30 ET. RSI reached overbought levels (75+) during the rally, then dropped sharply into neutral to slightly oversold territory. MACD confirmed the bearish reversal with a bearish crossover in the final hours of the day.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, with price reaching the upper band on the 09/05 13:45 ET candle. The subsequent pullback saw price drop to near the middle band. Volatility contraction occurred in the early morning, but expanded again with the rally, indicating increased market participation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally, particularly at 09/05 15:45 ET (10.24 billion volume), and again at 16:00 ET. Turnover mirrored volume patterns closely. Price and volume diverged in the final hours as price declined but volume remained elevated, suggesting a potential consolidation or reversal may be imminent.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 09/05 rally from 0.001410 to 0.001458 showed price retreating to the 61.8% level (0.001435–0.001436) and then falling below the 50% level (0.001434). The 38.2% retracement level (0.001443) could offer temporary resistance if bulls re-enter the market.

Backtest Hypothesis

The above patterns suggest a potential mean-reversion or breakout strategy could be tested. A backtest might look for long entries on a bullish engulfing pattern near key Fibonacci levels (e.g., 61.8%), with tight stop-loss placed below the prior swing low. A short entry could be triggered on a bearish reversal candle at the upper Bollinger Band or 75+ RSI. The volume divergence in the final hours also hints at a potential reversal setup, which could be incorporated into an algorithmic trading model focusing on momentum exhaustion and trend reversal.