Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) - October 12, 2025

• PEPEUSDT opened at $0.00000707 and closed at $0.00000677 over the past 24 hours.
• Price fell 4.23% with a high of $0.00000733 and low of $0.00000649, showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded mid-cycle before retreating, with volume peaking at $6.85e-06.
• Notional turnover reached $2.19B in the last 15-min period, indicating significant interest.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.00000671, suggesting further downside risk.

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $0.00000707 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at $0.00000677 by 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of $0.00000733 and a low of $0.00000649 during the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to ~$2.49T, with a notional turnover of ~$2.19B in the final candle. The price action reflects a bearish bias with signs of heightened volatility and diverging momentum.

Structure & Formations

The daily structure shows a distinct breakdown from a prior key resistance zone at $0.00000685, which had previously acted as a barrier to further gains. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.00000671, confirming a shift in sentiment. Additionally, a doji candle appeared at $0.00000704, suggesting indecision before the pullback. Support levels to watch are at $0.00000665 and $0.0000065, while resistance is likely retesting $0.00000675 in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, indicating a bearish bias. The price remains under both averages, with a negative slope, suggesting continuation of the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are aligned in a downward trend, reinforcing bearish momentum. A retest of the 100-period MA at ~$0.00000677 could trigger a short-term bounce but may not hold in the absence of strong buying.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, indicating a strengthening downtrend. The RSI is currently at 46, signaling moderate momentum but not yet into oversold territory. However, the divergence between RSI and price action in the afternoon suggests weakening selling pressure. If the RSI drops below 30 without a corresponding price rebound, it could signal a potential bounce from oversold levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-day, with the Bollinger Bands widening to accommodate the sharp decline from $0.00000733 to $0.00000677. The price closed just below the lower band, suggesting possible near-term support. A retrace to the middle band at ~$0.00000693 may be in play, but a break below the lower band could signal a new short-term target around $0.00000649.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final hours, particularly between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, with the largest notional turnover at $2.19B. This coincided with a breakdown below key support at $0.00000675, suggesting aggressive selling pressure. The divergence between price and volume in the morning suggests weakening bearish conviction, while the afternoon volume confirms bearish action.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from $0.00000733 to $0.00000677 shows 61.8% retracement at $0.00000704, which is currently acting as resistance. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at ~$0.00000673 aligns with current price action. A breakdown below $0.00000665 would bring the 61.8% level at ~$0.00000649 into focus for potential short-term targets.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves a momentum-based approach triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a drop below a 50-period moving average. A stop-loss is placed above the high of the engulfing pattern, with a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci level. Given today’s market conditions, the bearish engulfing pattern at $0.00000671 and the confirmed move below the 50-period MA provide a valid entry signal. A stop-loss above $0.00000685 would manage risk, with a target at $0.00000665. This strategy would have generated a short position with ~1.6% expected return within a 24-hour window.