Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) - 2025-10-03

• PEPEUSDT traded in a narrow range, with a 0.23% 24-hour decline.
• Price found key support near 9.86e-06 but failed to break above 1.029e-05 resistance.
• Volatility decreased in the late hours, with Bollinger Bands tightening.
• High trading volume spiked near 10.00–11.00 PM ET, followed by consolidation.
• RSI and MACD showed weak bullish momentum, suggesting a potential pause in upward movement.

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at 9.86e-06 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 9.93e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 1.031e-05 and a low of 9.86e-06. The pair recorded a 24-hour notional volume of $1.92 billion and a turnover of approximately $1.17 billion, with trading activity concentrated in the late Eastern time window.

The price action over 24 hours displayed a bearish consolidation pattern, especially in the last 8 hours of the period. A key support level was identified at 9.86e-06, where the price bounced back twice. A failed bullish breakout above 1.029e-05 suggests the resistance remains intact. The candlestick patterns, particularly the bearish harami and long lower shadows, indicate a cautious bearish sentiment among traders.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest a short-term bearish bias. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs both crossed below the price level, signaling a potential continuation of the downward drift. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA remains above the 100-period SMA, which indicates a longer-term bullish stance. However, this divergence between short- and long-term indicators suggests a period of consolidation may be in play.

RSI remains in neutral territory around 50, with no clear overbought or oversold signals, implying the market is balanced. MACD lines crossed into negative territory in the last 4 hours, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show a contraction in the early hours, with price consolidating near the middle band and expanding slightly toward the end. This suggests that volatility may pick up again in the near term.

Volume analysis revealed a significant spike in trading activity between 10.00–11.00 PM ET, with a volume of over $100 billion notional value. This was followed by a sharp consolidation phase with declining volume, suggesting that the initial buying pressure may have waned. However, the high volume during the peak suggests that traders were actively positioning for a potential move, even if it didn't materialize.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing show that the price has bounced off the 38.2% retracement level at 9.86e-06 and is currently consolidating near the 50% level. On the daily chart, the price is near the 61.8% retracement level from the recent high at 1.031e-05, which may serve as a key resistance or support zone in the coming days.

Looking ahead, PEPEUSDT appears to be in a transitional phase, balancing between bearish consolidation and potential breakout attempts. A move above 1.029e-05 would reinvigorate bullish momentum, while a breakdown below 9.86e-06 could accelerate the downward trend. Traders should remain cautious of potential volatility shifts and divergence between volume and price action.

The backtesting strategy described leverages the identified Fibonacci retracement levels and MACD crossover signals to generate buy and sell signals. A buy signal is generated when the price crosses above the 50-period SMA and the MACD line crosses above the signal line within the context of a bullish Fibonacci retracement zone. A sell signal occurs when the price crosses below the 50-period SMA and the MACD line drops below the signal line during a bearish retracement. This approach aims to capture directional momentum while managing risk through tight stop-loss levels at key Fibonacci levels.