Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) as of 2025-09-26

• PEPEUSDT opened at $9.39e-06 and traded between $9.01e-06 and $9.40e-06 over 24 hours, closing at $9.25e-06.
• A bearish drift dominated midday ET, countered by a late-night recovery as buyers returned in early morning trading.
• Volatility expanded during the initial 4–6 hours before gradually narrowing, suggesting reduced short-term uncertainty.
• Notional turnover exceeded $103.5 billion, with the highest concentration between 16:30 and 18:00 ET.
• No strong reversal patterns formed; price remains within a consolidative phase, lacking clear bullish or bearish momentum.

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $9.39e-06 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET and closed at $9.25e-06 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET, with a high of $9.40e-06 and low of $9.01e-06. The pair traded with a total volume of 3.12e+12 tokens and a notional turnover of $103.5 billion over the 24-hour period.

Over the past 24 hours, PEPEUSDT exhibited a bearish bias in the first half of the session, with a significant intraday low of $9.01e-06 observed in the early hours of 2025-09-26. However, a gradual recovery emerged in the early morning, with price settling back above $9.20e-06 by midday. Key support levels appear to be forming around $9.15e-06 and $9.05e-06, with resistance at $9.30e-06. A doji formed near $9.05e-06 and an engulfing bullish pattern emerged near $9.20e-06, suggesting mixed short-term sentiment.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both remain above the current price, indicating continued bearish pressure in the near term. On a daily chart, the 50-period MA is slightly above the 200-period MA, signaling a neutral to mildly bullish bias over the longer term. The RSI has oscillated between 30 and 50 for most of the session, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. A MACD crossover below the signal line has persisted, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands showed a widening of the upper band at $9.40e-06, followed by a contraction between $9.01e-06 and $9.15e-06, indicating a period of high volatility followed by consolidation. The price spent much of the session near the lower band, with limited rebounds into the mid-range. Notional turnover peaked during the 16:30–18:00 ET window, with price-volume divergence noted during the consolidation phase, suggesting a potential shift in short-term sentiment.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the $9.01e-06 to $9.40e-06 swing suggest 61.8% at $9.24e-06 and 38.2% at $9.29e-06, with the current price hovering near the 61.8% level. This may serve as a short-term support zone ahead of the next potential move.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when price closes above the 20-period moving average with confirmation from a bullish engulfing pattern, and shorting when it closes below the 50-period MA with a bearish engulfing pattern. Stop-loss orders can be placed at the nearest Fibonacci support/resistance levels, while take-profit targets may be set at 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels. This approach aims to capitalize on short-term directional bias confirmed by volume and candlestick structure, using Bollinger Band width as a volatility filter.