Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price declined from $0.00000977 to $0.00000937, closing 4.1% below the 24-hour high.
• RSI dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Notional volume surged to over $433B, with strong intraday volatility between $0.00000935 and $0.00000975.
• Bollinger Band contraction was observed prior to a sharp price drop after 01:30 ET.
• MACD trended lower with bearish divergence, supporting a continuation of the downward bias.

The 24-hour session for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $0.00000976 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at $0.00000937 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.00000977 and a low of $0.00000934. Total volume across the 24-hour period amounted to approximately 2,560,725,401,213 tokens, with a notional turnover of $23.7 billion. The price action was marked by a bearish bias, with sharp intraday corrections and a clear breakdown after 01:30 ET.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart revealed a series of bearish engulfing patterns, particularly in the hours after 02:00 ET. The price found support near $0.00000934 on multiple occasions but failed to establish a convincing reversal. Key resistance levels were identified at $0.00000965 and $0.00000975, while support levels were observed at $0.00000934 and $0.00000930. A notable doji formed at $0.00000940 around 04:45 ET, hinting at indecision before a further decline.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicated bearish momentum. The 20-period MA was below the 50-period MA, and both were trending downward. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100 and 200-period MAs, suggesting a deeper bearish shift in the medium-term trend. This crossover confirmed a breakdown in the bullish momentum seen earlier in the week.

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the histogram turning negative after 02:00 ET, aligning with the downward move. RSI dipped below 30 after 04:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions, though this has historically failed to produce strong bounces in fast-moving altcoin markets. Bollinger Bands showed a brief contraction between 01:00 and 01:45 ET before the price broke out lower, a sign of impending volatility. The closing price remained near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

Volume and turnover spiked significantly between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, with intraday volumes exceeding $30 billion in the 04:30–05:30 ET window. However, prices continued to decline, signaling a divergence where heavy volume did not support price action. This divergence suggests further downward pressure ahead. The turnover-to-price ratio remained elevated, with large trades driving most of the price movement.

Fibonacci retracements from the key 15-minute swing (high at $0.00000977, low at $0.00000934) showed that the current level at $0.00000937 aligns with the 78.6% retracement level, suggesting a potential temporary bounce. However, the 61.8% level at $0.00000948 appears to have failed as a strong support, indicating that the decline is likely to continue unless buyers step in above $0.00000955.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves entering short positions when the price breaks below a 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and the RSI drops below 30. Exit signals are triggered when either a 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA or RSI moves above 50. Over the 24-hour period, this strategy would have entered short positions between 02:00 and 04:00 ET, aligning with the strong downtrend. The use of Fibonacci levels at 61.8% and 78.6% could also serve as dynamic stop-loss levels. Initial results suggest a positive expectancy based on the observed price action and technical indicators, though confirmation from extended testing would be necessary for a robust strategy.