Market Overview for Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• Price fell from $0.0000108 to $0.00001056 on increased bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting short-term reversal potential.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed midday, signaling low volatility and possible breakout.
• Volume spiked during key price declines, confirming bearish sentiment.
• MACD showed bearish divergence, hinting at ongoing downward pressure.

Pepe/Tether (PEPEUSDT) opened at $0.0000108 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.00001083 and falling to a low of $0.00001042 before closing at $0.00001056 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 1,294,623,623,529.0, and notional turnover amounted to ~$13.8M, indicating moderate liquidity despite a bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish bias throughout the session, forming key support at $0.00001052 and resistance at $0.00001083. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 18:30 ET on 2025-09-20, confirming a reversal from a prior bullish move. A doji appeared around 00:45 ET on 2025-09-21, signaling indecision in a consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly aligned, with price failing to close above the 50SMA in the final hours. Daily MA structure showed the 50- and 100-day averages converging near $0.0000107, with price failing to break above that level, indicating continued bearish control.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish, with a negative divergence forming as price hit lower lows while MACD failed to confirm lower troughs. The RSI approached oversold territory around $0.00001052 (RSI 30.2), hinting at a possible bounce, though bearish momentum remained strong. A short-term rally may not break above 38.2% Fibonacci at $0.00001076 without stronger bullish confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted sharply between 02:00–04:00 ET, with price consolidating within a narrow band. After 06:00 ET, the bands widened as price broke below the lower band, indicating a bearish breakout. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential for a retest of $0.00001045 before any meaningful reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish leg, particularly in the 18:45–19:30 ET window, with a high of $0.00001069 to $0.00001064 on heavy volume (~$144.7M). Turnover spiked during key price declines, confirming bearish conviction. Price and turnover aligned on the downside, with no notable divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent swing from $0.00001083 to $0.00001045 marked a 38.2% retrace at $0.00001067 and a 61.8% retrace at $0.00001058. Price failed to close above 50% retracement at $0.00001064, suggesting a potential test of 61.8% support in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the convergence of bearish momentum indicators (MACD, RSI), strong volume on the downside, and a failure to break above key resistance at $0.00001083, a backtest strategy could target short positions with a stop above $0.00001076 and a target at 61.8% Fibonacci at $0.00001058. If RSI closes above 35 with a bullish engulfing pattern, it would signal a potential short-term reversal, flipping the strategy to a long bias.