Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – September 24, 2025

• Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) fell to a 24-hour low of $0.00004199, closing at $0.00004272 amid increased volatility and bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in early morning trading as prices dropped below key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band midlines.
• MACD and RSI signaled bearish momentum, with RSI reaching oversold territory and a weak bullish rebound in afternoon hours.
• High-volume sell-offs occurred between 18:00–20:30 ET, while buyers regained control late in the session.
• Notable bearish engulfing and inside bar patterns emerged during the overnight selloff.

Overview

At 12:00 ET−1, Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at $0.00004320, reached a high of $0.00004333, and a low of $0.00004199, before closing at $0.00004272 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the pair traded on a total volume of 14,315.2 PENDLE and a notional turnover of $61.51 (assuming an average BTC price of $60,000). The session was marked by choppy price action, bearish breakouts, and a sharp selloff from 18:00–20:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed several bearish patterns, including an engulfing candle at $0.00004242–$0.00004295 and an inside bar at $0.00004226–$0.00004239. These patterns signaled indecision and bearish bias during the overnight and early-morning selloff. A key support level was identified at $0.00004205–$0.00004218, which held for several hours before being tested again late in the session. Resistance levels remained weak, with the most recent at $0.00004320–$0.00004333 showing bearish rejection.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20 SMA crossed below the 50 SMA late in the session, forming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are converging from above, with the 200-period MA acting as a strong bearish reference point at $0.00004250–$0.00004265.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram was negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover occurring at 05:30 ET. RSI reached oversold levels at $0.00004205 before rebounding slightly in the afternoon. The rebound failed to close above the 30 level, indicating weak bullish conviction. The combination of bearish momentum and weak reversal attempts suggests the pair may remain pressured in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff from 18:00–20:30 ET, with prices dipping below the lower band at $0.00004205. This expansion indicated a period of heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion. The price later retested the middle band with mixed results, closing just below it. A reversal back toward the upper band would require strong bullish volume, which has yet to materialize.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, with the largest trade occurring at 18:00 ET with a 7,275.8 PENDLE sell order. Turnover was bearishly skewed, with most activity occurring in the lower half of the range. A divergence emerged between bearish price action and relatively stable volume levels in the afternoon, suggesting some buying interest but not enough to reverse the trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the key swing high at $0.00004333 and the swing low at $0.00004199. The 38.2% retracement level at $0.00004267 and the 61.8% at $0.00004233 were both tested but failed to hold. A breakdown below the 61.8% level could target $0.00004200–$0.00004185, with potential for a test of the 78.6% level at $0.00004215.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish bias observed in PENDLEBTC aligns with a backtesting strategy that enters short positions on bearish engulfing patterns and bearish MACD crossovers, with stop-loss placement above the most recent swing high and take-profit targets at key Fibonacci retracement levels. This approach would have entered a short position at $0.00004295–$0.00004242, with a stop above $0.00004320 and a target at $0.00004200–$0.00004185. The strategy also relies on volume confirmation, where a sharp increase in bearish volume (as observed at 18:00 ET) signals a high-probability setup.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor volume for signs of accumulation near $0.00004205 and watch for a potential test of the 50/100-period moving average convergence. While the near-term outlook remains bearish, a reversal above $0.00004272 could indicate a temporary relief rally. As always, the risk of a sudden reversal remains due to low liquidity and high volatility in smaller altcoin pairs.