Market Overview: Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – September 14, 2025

• PENDLEBTC declines 1.23% over the past 24 hours amid bearish momentum.
• Key resistance forms around 4.49e-05, with price failing to hold above in multiple attempts.
• Volatility and turnover spiked after 18:00 ET, hinting at speculative activity.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening bullish conviction with no overbought conditions observed.
• Bollinger Bands show a slight expansion, with price trading near the lower band.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at 4.441e-05 on 12:00 ET-1, rose to a high of 4.535e-05, fell to a low of 4.411e-05, and closed at 4.432e-05 on 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 4,820.7 units, and notional turnover reached $68. Over the past 24 hours, the pair has seen a moderate decline amid mixed technical signals.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a series of bearish formations, including a bearish engulfing pattern following a 19:00 ET rally, and a key rejection at 4.49e-05 that failed to hold. A doji formed at 03:45 ET, signaling indecision in a critical support zone. The 4.441e-05 level has acted as a recurring pivot point, offering temporary support but failing to confirm a bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has consistently traded below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish bias. The 50-period line at ~4.48e-05 is a key resistance, while the 100-period line at ~4.46e-05 continues to bear downward pressure. The 200-period MA remains a distant bearish reference at ~4.45e-05. On the daily chart, price remains below the 200-period MA, which could reinforce bearish sentiment over the coming days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned bearish, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line in the negative territory, confirming weakening momentum. The RSI has dipped to neutral territory in the 40-50 range, suggesting a lack of strong buyer interest. No overbought or oversold conditions were observed, which implies the market is in a consolidation phase with no immediate reversal signals.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened slightly in the afternoon hours, suggesting an increase in short-term volatility. Price has spent most of the session near the lower band, indicating a bearish consolidation phase. A move back to the middle band would suggest a potential retest of key resistance levels without a full breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply after 18:00 ET, coinciding with a failed attempt to break above 4.49e-05. Notional turnover increased in tandem with price divergence, suggesting aggressive positioning but not enough to confirm a breakout. A bearish divergence in volume and price emerged after 22:30 ET, with volume dropping significantly despite a rebound in price.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from 4.411e-05 to 4.535e-05, the 38.2% level at ~4.48e-05 and 61.8% level at ~4.448e-05 have acted as pivotal zones. Price has bounced from the 61.8% level multiple times, suggesting short-term support may hold. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a broader bearish trend remains a critical watch point at ~4.46e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on 15-minute RSI and volume divergence could offer predictive value in this pair. The hypothesis suggests entering short positions when RSI dips below 50, a bearish candlestick forms, and volume declines despite a price rebound. Exit triggers include a bullish reversal pattern, a break above the 50-period MA, or a RSI rebound above 55. This approach aims to capture short-term corrections in a volatile, range-bound market and may perform well in consolidating environments like the one observed today.