Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – October 27, 2025

• PENDLEBTC opened at $0.00002922, with a 24-hour high of $0.00003090 and a low of $0.00002906.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed during the 09:15–09:45 ET window, coinciding with a large-volume pullback.
• Volatility expanded midday before contracting into consolidation near key support levels.
• RSI showed oversold conditions late in the session, suggesting potential for short-term bounce.
• Notional turnover spiked during a strong bullish candle, but failed to confirm a reversal.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 26, 2025, Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at $0.00002922, and over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of $0.00003090 and a low of $0.00002906 before closing at $0.00002918 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded on a total volume of 8,757.2 units, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $0.258. The price action showed a series of mixed signals, with bearish momentum dominating early in the session and a brief reversal attempt in the afternoon.

The daily chart showed PENDLEBTC forming a key bearish engulfing pattern during the 09:15–09:45 ET window, as a large-volume candle confirmed a rejection at a prior resistance level. A subsequent decline saw the pair test a 20-period SMA (15-min chart), which it failed to hold above. The 50-period SMA acted as a dynamic resistance, while the 200-period SMA on the daily chart remained a critical psychological floor. The 15-min chart displayed a narrowing of volatility in the latter half of the session, as Bollinger Bands contracted following the sharp pullback.

The 15-minute MACD crossed into negative territory after 09:00 ET, reflecting bearish momentum, while the RSI dipped into oversold territory late in the session, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the volume during this oversold bounce was muted, raising concerns about the strength of any near-term reversal. Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8% corresponded with the 0.00002950 and 0.00002930 levels, respectively, with the price closing near the 38.2% retracement. The pair remained within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands for the final six hours, signaling a period of consolidation.

In the near term, PENDLEBTC may test the 0.00002906 level as a critical support zone, with a break below it potentially signaling a deeper decline toward 0.00002880. However, the oversold RSI reading and recent rejection at key resistance levels suggest traders should remain cautious. A sustained rally above 0.00002950 would be a positive signal for short-term buyers, but given the bearish momentum and lack of follow-through volume, the pair could remain volatile and range-bound in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent bearish reversal pattern and intraday momentum suggest a potential shorting opportunity aligned with the proposed backtesting strategy. Using a short entry at the open price of the day following a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern could be effective, especially if supported by RSI overbought readings and a violation of a key moving average. To complete the strategy, an exit rule is needed. A risk-controlled approach—such as a 3-day hold with a 10% stop-loss or take-profit—would provide clear parameters for evaluating the effectiveness of the strategy. Further refinement could include dynamic exits based on Fibonacci levels or Bollinger Band breakouts. This would allow the backtest to assess both the frequency and profitability of the pattern-based approach.