Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – October 11, 2025

• PENDLEBTC fell 34.6% from its 24-h high, closing near 3.19e-05.
• Volatility surged in the first half of the session, with a sharp drop and partial recovery afterward.
• Volume spiked early in the session before declining, while turnover remained elevated.
• Key support at 3.21e-05 and resistance at 3.30e-05 were tested but failed to hold.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term rebound potential.

15-Minute OHLC Summary and 24-Hour Volume

The 24-hour session for PENDLEBTC opened at 3.602e-05 at 16:00 ET October 10 and closed at 3.186e-05 by 12:00 ET October 11. The pair reached a high of 3.627e-05 and a low of 1.507e-05, with the price trending down across most of the session. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 188,828.8 units, and with the average price, the estimated notional turnover was approximately $6,000 (assuming $30,000 BTC price).

Structure & Formations

The price action featured a strong bearish reversal pattern beginning from 19:30 ET October 10, where PENDLEBTC dropped from 3.592e-05 to 2.286e-05 in one 15-minute candle. This formed a large bearish engulfing pattern. A key support level appears to be around 3.21e-05 to 3.24e-05, where price tested three times during the session without breaking. A bullish reversal signal may emerge if the price stabilizes above this zone. A critical resistance level is at 3.30e-05, which was briefly touched but failed to hold.

Engulfing and Doji Candles

A large bearish engulfing candle at 19:30 ET signaled a shift in momentum. Doji patterns were observed around 00:00 ET October 11 and again at 01:00 ET, indicating indecision and potential reversal. These patterns suggest a possible consolidation phase after the sharp drop.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price trend, confirming bearish momentum. The 20 MA was at 3.22e-05 and the 50 MA at 3.23e-05, with both moving downward.

Daily MAs

The 50-day MA is currently at 3.35e-05, the 100-day MA at 3.38e-05, and the 200-day MA at 3.40e-05, suggesting long-term bearish bias. Price remains well below all major daily MAs.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 19:30 ET, confirming the bearish move. RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, indicating potential for a near-term bounce or consolidation. However, without a clear rejection at key support levels, the bearish trend could persist.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded sharply during the early part of the session, with price dropping through the lower Bollinger Band. By the end of the session, the price had consolidated above the lower band, but remained within a tight range, suggesting a possible pause in volatility.

Consolidation and Reentry Signals

If the price holds above 3.21e-05, the lower Bollinger Band may act as a dynamic support level. A breakout above the upper band at 3.30e-05 could signal renewed bullish momentum.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the initial bearish move but declined sharply after 21:30 ET. This divergence between volume and price action suggests weakening bearish conviction. The largest single-volume candle occurred at 21:30 ET with 54,304.8 units traded. Turnover remained elevated during the drop, indicating active participation during the sell-off.

Price/Volume Divergence

Despite the continued decline in price, volume has not remained consistently high, signaling potential exhaustion of the current bearish trend. This divergence could point to a short-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent 15-minute move from 3.592e-05 to 2.286e-05, the 38.2% retracement level is at 3.06e-05 and the 61.8% level is at 2.75e-05. The 38.2% level was briefly tested but not held. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the longer-term bear trend from 3.40e-05 to 3.20e-05 is at 3.30e-05, which is also a key resistance area.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when PENDLEBTC closes above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (3.06e-05) and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, with a stop-loss just below the most recent swing low. A short position could be triggered when the RSI moves above 70 (overbought) and the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (2.75e-05), with a stop above the most recent swing high. Given the recent bearish engulfing and RSI oversold condition, this approach may test the balance between trend-following and mean-reversion signals.