Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC)

• PENDLEBTC posted a 0.26% gain over 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour high.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, with volume spiking 28x above average in key 15-minute candles.
• Price found initial support at $0.00004215 and resistance at $0.00004275.
• MACD showed bullish divergence while RSI remained below overbought levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened, suggesting increased uncertainty and potential consolidation ahead.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at $0.00004173 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00004256 by 2025-09-06 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.00004293 and a low of $0.00004142 during the session. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 5,749.6 units, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $244.93.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bullish reversal pattern in the early morning hours, especially between 18:15 ET and 19:30 ET, where a series of higher highs and higher lows formed a bullish continuation setup. A key support level emerged at $0.00004215, tested twice during the session and holding firm. A potential resistance zone developed at $0.00004275, where price stalled multiple times and failed to break decisively. A long-legged doji appeared at 21:45 ET, suggesting indecision and a possible short-term pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price stayed above both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating a bullish bias. The 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA during the 21:30–21:45 ET window, reinforcing the uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA remained in a bullish alignment, with the 100DMA acting as a dynamic support around $0.00004230. No bearish crossovers were observed, suggesting continued short-to-medium-term strength.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a growing bullish momentum in the late evening and early morning hours, with a positive divergence forming between price and the indicator after 05:00 ET. The RSI reached a peak of 58 and held below the 60 overbought threshold, indicating that while the rally was strong, it was not yet overextended. A pullback to the 40–45 range would test the 38.2% Fibonacci level, but as of close, momentum remained intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the 18:15–21:15 ET period, reflecting increased volatility and buying pressure. Price closed near the upper band, which stood at $0.00004293, indicating a potential overbought condition. A retracement into the middle band range of $0.00004260–$0.00004270 could signal a consolidation phase before the next breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 18:15–19:30 ET period, with a single candle at 18:15 ET recording 391.9 units traded—nearly 28 times the average 15-minute volume. Notional turnover mirrored this, surging to $17.05 during the same candle. Price and turnover were well-correlated, with no signs of divergence. A quieter period followed at 05:00–06:00 ET, with turnover dropping below $0.50 and volume declining significantly, suggesting a possible consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were key in defining potential retracement zones. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level sat at $0.00004275, where price stalled. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci level at $0.00004265 acted as a key psychological level, successfully holding during the 21:15–23:30 ET period. A break of the 61.8% level could signal a deeper consolidation into the 38.2% level at $0.00004230.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy involves entering long positions when a bullish crossover occurs between the 20SMA and 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a volume surge exceeding 2.5x the 24-hour average and a bullish RSI divergence. Exits are triggered when price breaks below the 100DMA or RSI drops below 40. Historical data from the PENDLEBTC 24-hour session supports this strategy, with the 20/50 crossover occurring at 21:30 ET and a volume spike observed in the 18:15 ET candle. The setup aligns well with current conditions and could be a viable short-term signal for a continuation of the uptrend.