Market Overview for Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) – 2025-11-13

Summary
• PENDLEBTC opened at $0.00002572 and closed at $0.00002599, forming a bullish candle on the 24-hour chart.
• Volatility increased in the early morning with a high of $0.00002621 and low of $0.00002542.
• RSI(14) moved into overbought territory near the close, indicating potential pullback risks.
• Volume spiked to a 24-hour peak of 1,993.5 in the early hours, confirming key price action.

Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) opened at $0.00002572 on 2025-11-13 and closed at $0.00002599, with a high of $0.00002621 and low of $0.00002542. Total traded volume across the 24-hour period was 10,370.3, and notional turnover reached approximately $263.63. The price action appears to have formed key support near $0.00002542 and resistance around $0.00002621.

Structure and formations show PENDLEBTC consolidating above a key 24-hour support level around $0.00002542 after a bearish reversal pattern in the late hours of the previous day. A bullish candle in the early morning suggests possible short-term buying interest. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart are closely aligned, indicating neutral bias, while the daily 50-period and 200-period SMAs suggest a stronger bullish bias. Price appears to have bounced off the lower Bollinger Band earlier in the session, signaling a potential volatility expansion.

The 15-minute MACD crossed above zero and remains in positive territory, supporting a continuation of bullish momentum. RSI(14) reached 70 by the close, suggesting overbought conditions, which may lead to a short-term correction. Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 24-hour swing highlight key levels at 38.2% ($0.00002581) and 61.8% ($0.00002595), which could offer potential resistance.

Volume and notional turnover were highest between 04:00 and 07:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp rally. However, a divergence was observed in the final hours, with volume declining despite a price high, suggesting some uncertainty in the market. Notional turnover remained in line with price direction for most of the session, confirming the bullish breakout from the morning lows.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest results from a long-only strategy based on RSI(14) crossovers and a 20% stop-loss offer interesting insight into potential trading opportunities. Over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13, the strategy delivered a total return of approximately 265% with a CAGR of 83.7%. While the risk profile remains elevated—with a max drawdown of 72.7% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.87—the results suggest that PENDLEBTC may be more volatile but potentially rewarding for traders willing to tolerate higher risk. The RSI-based strategy aligns well with today’s observed overbought condition and could signal a potential reversal if RSI retreats below 70.