Market Overview: Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) on 2025-10-10

• Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) traded in a narrow range overnight before breaking higher midday, closing near the session high.
• Momentum picked up after 19:30 ET, with volume surging to 849 units during a 15-minute rally to 0.00003713.
• Volatility remained moderate, with price within a tight Bollinger Band range for most of the session.
• RSI entered overbought territory in the final 3 hours, suggesting potential pullback risk ahead.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the breakout, signaling short-term bullish bias but requiring confirmation beyond 0.0000374.

The Pendle/Bitcoin (PENDLEBTC) pair opened at 0.00003668 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.00003740 by 10/10 at 04:30 ET. The price closed the 24-hour period at 0.00003691, with a low of 0.00003573. Total traded volume was 8,466.6 units, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 0.3088 BTC (based on closing prices). The session was characterized by a narrow consolidation phase followed by a sharp rally in the late evening.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key support level at 0.00003654 and resistance at 0.00003740, where a bullish engulfing candle confirmed a breakout. The 19:30 ET candle formed a strong reversal pattern as the price surged from 0.00003680 to 0.00003713. A doji appeared at 23:45 ET, hinting at indecision, followed by a continuation of the upward trend. A potential target for the next move is the 0.00003745 level, which aligns with the recent high. A break below 0.00003670 could signal a test of 0.00003654.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the 20-period MA at 0.00003689 and the 50-period MA at 0.00003691, with the price closing just above the 50SMA, indicating bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA was at 0.00003675, slightly below the 200-day MA of 0.00003690, suggesting a bearish bias in the broader timeframe. The 100-day MA at 0.00003680 added a mixed signal, with the price hovering near key averages.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the last 3 hours, crossing above the signal line and forming a bullish divergence with price. The histogram expanded from -0.00000003 to +0.00000002, supporting the upward move. RSI reached 67.5 in the final 45 minutes of the session, entering overbought territory. This suggests a potential pullback is due unless further momentum is seen beyond 0.00003740. The RSI histogram also showed a narrowing of bearish momentum earlier in the session, hinting at a shift in sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 19:30–21:00 ET window, with the upper band reaching 0.00003735. Price closed near the upper band at 0.00003691, suggesting strength in the current trend. The lower band was at 0.00003645, indicating a potential support zone. The 20-period Bollinger Band width increased from 0.00000021 to 0.00000043, confirming higher volatility during the breakout phase. A contraction in the next 24 hours could signal a possible consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, with a total of 988.9 units traded in that hour. This coincided with a 0.00003713 high and a 0.00003693 close, suggesting strong buying pressure. The largest single 15-minute turnover occurred at 19:30 ET with 849 units, followed by 412.5 at 19:45 ET. The price and turnover were aligned in the final 3 hours, reinforcing the bullish signal. A divergence in the coming session could indicate a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.00003645 (low) to 0.00003740 (high), the 23.6% level is at 0.00003713, 38.2% at 0.00003709, and 50% at 0.000036925. The 61.8% level is at 0.00003679, aligning with the 50-day MA. The current close at 0.00003691 is very close to the 50% retracement level, suggesting potential support or resistance at that level. A break above 0.00003709 may signal continuation, while a move below 0.00003679 could signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy for this pair should focus on breakout and retracement-based entries, particularly around the 50SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci level. A long entry could be triggered on a close above the upper Bollinger Band, confirmed by positive MACD and RSI above 50. Stop-loss placement at 0.00003675, just below the 50SMA, would limit downside risk. A take-profit target at 0.00003745 aligns with the prior high and could offer a 3–4% reward-to-risk ratio. This approach would be best applied with a trailing stop as the trend continues.